FTR lowers 2009 Class 8 forecast, cites weaker freight demand
FTR now expects N.A. Class 8 factory shipments to come in around 150,000 units with U.S. production of trailers to be under 100,000 units for 2009, according to the Oct. 24 issue. The lowered equipment forecasts are based on the expected poor economic environment for trucking which will continue to depress freight demand significantly throughout 2009.
The Trucker News Services
10/29/2008
NASHVILLE, Ind. — FTR Associates’ North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook report reflects a significant reduction in 2009 vehicle equipment forecasts.
FTR now expects N.A. Class 8 factory shipments to come in around 150,000 units with U.S. production of trailers to be under 100,000 units for 2009, according to the Oct. 24 issue. The lowered equipment forecasts are based on the expected poor economic environment for trucking which will continue to depress freight demand significantly throughout 2009.
FTR said it believes a recession is unavoidable through the second quarter of next year with total gross domestic product (GDP) to fall 0.2 percent in 2009.
With limited freight to haul, demand for transportation equipment is already soft and is expected to remain weak over the next several quarters, the report said. FTR sees no noticeable increase in freight demand until the middle of 2010.
“We know this forecast will be a blow to many industry participants, but our instinct is to take the information we have and generate as reliable an outlook for equipment build as possible to give our subscribers a true sense of what to expect,” FTR President Eric Starks said. “We will continue to do that.”
More information about the North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook can be found at www.ftrassociates.net.
FTR Associates, located in Nashville, Ind., has provied transportation forecasting for more than 20 years.
The company’s U.S. Freight Model collects and analyzes all data likely to impact freight movement and is based on specific characteristics for over 200 commodity groups. FTR Associates’ forecast reports cover trucking and rail transportation and include demand analysis for commercial vehicle as well as railcar.