Class 8 sales remain flat in March, trail '07 by 35 percent

Navistar's International ProStar and its aero appeal have helped boost the company's market share this year.

The Trucker Staff

4/11/2008

New heavy-duty truck sales in March were up ever so slightly from the month before, marking the second consecutive month of improvement since the dismal January report. But, by once again just topping the 10,000 units mark, industry-wide sales remain at the lower end of the curve that first fell to this level last June.

According to figures provided to The Trucker by Ward’s Automotive, Class 8 sales in March totaled 10,419 trucks in the United States, compared to 10,229 in February, a month-to-month gain of 1.8 percent. The year began with a thud, as the OEMs sold a meager 9,600 trucks in January. The latest uptick also lags positive swings registered in October and December last year, which came in closer to the 12,000 unit mark (11,769 and 12,034, respectively).

Historically, January and February are the slowest months on the sales calendar, with March month-to-month improvements typically running in the 20-30 percent range.

In a year-to-year comparison, reported sales were 16,090 in March 2007, making for a decline this year of 35.2 percent versus the same period. Even so, the March report was the best year-over-year comparison since the same time last year, after which the totals routinely were down more than half from the record sales posted in 2006. Still, the total marked the slowest March since 2003 — and that 8,808 total is among the lowest one-month reports on a spreadsheet dating to January 2000, a period of 98 months.

Though more severe than generally anticipated, the emissions mandate-driven slump of ’07 is now expected to linger, given high fuel costs, excess capacity and bottom line struggles of carriers, insiders say.

And while manufacturers and industry analysts agree the narrow window ahead of substantial equipment changes required by 2010 standards should mean sales will return to peak levels late this year through 2009, there has been some waffling on when the turn around in Class 8 should be expected.

In a closer look at the most recent Ward’s data, Navistar’s International brands registered sales of 2,456 units in March to pace the OEMs in volume, narrowly besting Daimler’s Freightliner and its 2,245 mark — as the traditional industry-leading nameplates continue the recently very competitive race for the top spot.

With the exception of International (up 4.6 percent), the Class 8 field took substantial hits in the order book compared to the same month a year ago — when OEMs  began the year booking strong sales based on a surplus availability of pre-2007 emissions-compliant engines. The Daimler set of Western Star (86 units), Sterling (604 units) and Freightliner were down 62.9 percent, 47.9 percent, and 47.2 percent, respectively.

Among the other OEMs, compared to March 2007, were PACCAR brands Peterbilt (1,420 trucks, -29.8 percent) and Kenworth (1,283 trucks, -35.1 percent); and Volvo Truck North America brands Volvo (842 trucks, -57.1 percent); and Mack (982 trucks, -35.1 percent).

Compared to the month before, Volvo suffered a 76.8 percent decline. Also losing ground were Kenworth (down 7.4 percent) and Western Star (down 7 percent).

Month-to-month figures posted by the OEMs showing gains were paced by Peterbilt (up 16.8. percent) followed by International (14.8 percent); Mack (13.6 percent) Sterling (10.6 percent); and Freightliner (3.2 percent).

Month-to-month numbers, it should be noted, can vary greatly — especially between quarters or from year’s end — depending on an OEM’s sales incentives and reporting procedures.

With the first quarter of 2008 to go on, Freightliner’s year-to-date market share is 24.6 percent (7,428 units sold), and International’s is 24.3 percent (7,336 units). The sales pie also shows Volvo with a 12.6 percent slice (3,805 units), followed by Peterbilt (12.2 percent, 3,686 units) and Kenworth (12.2 percent, 3,676 units).

A year ago, Freightliner’s market share was 31.9 percent for the quarter, meaning a decline of 738 basis points in its wedge. International is the big gainer, improving 693 basis points from 17.3 percent of the Class 8 total sales in the U.S.  

For additional coverage of Class 8 industry trends, see the May 1-14 print edition of The Trucker.