FTR: Significant increase in October Class 8 orders

FTR believes the increased order activity in October is “a temporary situation” that may actually take orders away from early 2010, so the forecast for next year remains very conservative, pending economic activity to support solid orders going forward.

The Trucker News Services

11/4/2009

NASHVILLE, Ind. — FTR Associates has released preliminary data showing Class 8 net orders for all major North American OEM’s totaled 21,792 units in October, reflecting “a definite upsurge” in order activity. 

October’s order volume is a 104 percent increase over September and a 117 percent year-over-year increase. For the last three months, Class 8 orders were received at an annualized rate of 172,300, significantly better than early 2009. The figure includes orders for the U.S., Canada, Mexico and exports. 

“All indications are that the October increase is due to the filling up of remaining 2009 production slots for trucks with the older 2007 engine technology and to avoid the new 2010 engines, which due to tighter emission standards will be more expensive and will employ new technology,” said Eric Starks, president of FTR. “Significantly, the order activity was broad based among the OEMs from fleets of various sizes and did not appear to be dealer restocking. We are encouraged that fleets have developed enough confidence in the economic recovery that they have been willing to make such commitments at this time.”

Starks noted, however, that FTR believes the order activity is “a temporary situation” that may actually take orders away from early 2010, so the forecast for next year remains very conservative, pending economic activity to support solid orders going forward.

Final data for October will be available from FTR later in the month as part of their North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.   

FTR Associates, located in Nashville, Ind., has been providing transportation forecasts for more than 20 years.  Its forecast reports cover trucking and rail transportation and include demand analysis for commercial vehicle as well as railcar. 

Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at kevinj@thetrucker.com.

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