July tonnage up from June, still down 10 percent from ’08

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that truck tonnage will continue to be choppy in the months ahead, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. He said he is hopeful that truck tonnage has finally hit bottom as it has been bouncing around a seven-year low for the last few months.

The Trucker News Services

8/26/2009

ARLINGTON, Va. — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.1 percent in July. In June, tonnage fell 2.4 percent. July’s gain, which raised the SA index to 101.9 (2000=100), wasn’t large enough to completely offset the reduction in the previous month. 

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 106.3 in July, down 0.9 percent from June. 

Compared with July 2008, SA tonnage fell 10.4 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since February 2009. June’s 13.6 percent contraction was the largest year-over-year decrease of the current cycle.   

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that truck tonnage will continue to be choppy in the months ahead, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. 

“It is not unusual for an economic indicator to become volatile before changing direction,” Costello noted.

He said he is hopeful that truck tonnage has finally hit bottom as it has been bouncing around a seven-year low for the last few months. 

“While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight tonnage is about to rise significantly or consistently,” Costello said.  “Still, even small gains are better than the February 2008 through April 2009 cumulative tonnage reduction of 15.5 percent.” 

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 69 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods, the ATA says.

Trucks hauled 10.2 billion tons of freight in 2008. Motor carriers collected $660.3 billion, or 83.1 percent of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 10th day of the month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons, and key financial indicators.

The American Trucking Associations is the largest national trade association for the trucking industry. Through a federation of other trucking groups, industry-related conferences, and its 50 affiliated state trucking associations, ATA represents more than 37,000 members covering every type of motor carrier in the United States.

Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at kevinj@thetrucker.com.

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