TCP survey says carrier optimism slipped from spring peak

The survey showed larger carriers were more confident going forward — having already benefited from tightening capacity. (TCP graphic)

The Trucker News Services

12/3/2010

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Sixty-six percent of carriers expect volumes to increase over the next year, down from a more hopeful report in the spring, according to the fourth quarter Business Expectation Survey by Transport Capital Partners LLC.

“At this time last year, about the same share of carriers expected volumes to increase, but a peak of almost 90 percent was hit in the second quarter of 2010,” said Richard Mikes, TCP partner, who noted that the hopefulness which characterized the spring has waned in recent quarters as economic growth has slowed.

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But with more than three-quarters of carriers expecting rate increases in the next year, optimism remains high.

“TCP’s surveys from the last two years indicate that carriers have become more confident that volumes and rates will increase during the next year, despite the modest drop in the last two quarters,” said Lana Batts, managing partner for TCP. 

The survey showed larger carriers were more confident going forward — having already benefited from tightening capacity.

“Larger carriers are more upbeat in this environment,” observed Mikes.  “More of the carriers over $25 million in revenue saw rates go up in the last three months than did the smaller carriers.” 

This was reflected in future rate expectations as well, according to the survey.

“Smaller carriers are facing increasing fuel, equipment, and financing constraints and must recover more costs soon,”  Batts said.

And Mikes added that “shippers will be hard pressed not to accommodate cost pressures coupled with the restricted supply of trucks and drivers that is likely to continue.” 

TCP, which specializes in transportation mergers and acquisitions, capital sourcing and advisory services, uses the quarterly survey to collect the insights and opinions of executives nationwide in order to report on the industry’s current state and future expectations. 

Mikes and Batts, both with extensive experience in transportation, directed the survey and analyzed the findings.  TCP couples the survey results with conversations they hold with carriers and others in the industry to present an insightful dialogue on key issues.  More information is available at TCP’s website: www.transportcap.com.

Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at kevinj@thetrucker.com.

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