FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index declines in October
The Trucking Conditions Index is a compilation of factors affecting trucking companies and has remained in positive territory for the past eight months.
The Trucker News Services
12/5/2011
NASHVILLE, Ind. — FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index, as reported in the December Trucking Update, declined to a reading of 3.4 in October. The environment for truckers as measured by the TCI softened primarily due to further delay in the issuance of revised Hours of Service regulations, according to the FTR report. This is affecting the near-term outlook for capacity and therefore the current ability of carriers to gain rate increases.
The TCI is projected to increase as capacity conditions tighten, but the peak has been moved back from April to October of next year, reflecting the regulatory delay.
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The Trucking Conditions Index is a compilation of factors affecting trucking companies and has remained in positive territory for the past eight months. Any reading above zero indicates an adequate trucking environment with readings above 10 a sign that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for trucking companies.
Noting the “considerable drop” of six points in the TCI in October, FTR Senior Consultant Larry Gross pointed out some of this drop was a result of changes in the methodology for calculating the TCI.
“Although October’s TCI reflected the rather subdued nature of the fall peak at that point in time, the recent strong start to the holiday shopping season combined with retailers’ lean inventories cause us to believe that the TCI will soon resume climbing even in the absence of near-term changes in federal regulations,” Gross said. “The addition of any such changes, now expected to be announced by year-end, will exacerbate the trend.”
The monthly Trucking Update is part of FTR’s Freight Focus Series and reports data that directly impacts the activity and profitability of truck fleets. As part of the Trucking Update, FTR forecasts expected trends in this data and the probable short and long term consequences. The December issue includes commentary discussing the current status of the new Hours of Service regulation.
FTR Associates, located in Nashville, Ind., has been in transportation forecasting for more than 20 years. The company’s U.S. Freight Model collects and analyzes all data likely to impact freight movement and is based on specific characteristics for over 200 commodity groups. FTR Associates’ forecast reports cover trucking and rail transportation and include demand analysis for commercial vehicle as well as railcar.
Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at kevinj@thetrucker.com.
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