Sunday, January 21, 2018

Bottom of tonnage cycle nears with 0.3% decrease in October, Costello says


Tuesday, November 22, 2016
by THE TRUCKER NEWS SERVICES

“While seasonally adjusted tonnage fell, meaning the not-seasonally-adjusted gain wasn’t as large as expected, the bottom of the current tonnage cycle should be near,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “There are some recent trends that suggest truck freight should improve, albeit gradually, soon."  (The Trucker file photo)
“While seasonally adjusted tonnage fell, meaning the not-seasonally-adjusted gain wasn’t as large as expected, the bottom of the current tonnage cycle should be near,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “There are some recent trends that suggest truck freight should improve, albeit gradually, soon." (The Trucker file photo)

 ARLINGTON, Va. — October’s American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.3 percent in October to 131.6, following a revised 6.3 percent drop during September, ATA reported today. The index fell 0.9 percent from the same period last year, the second straight year-over-year decrease. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 2.5 percent from 2015.

The not-seasonally-adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, increased 1.9 percent from September to 138.2, ATA stated.

“While seasonally adjusted tonnage fell, meaning the not-seasonally-adjusted gain wasn’t as large as expected, the bottom of the current tonnage cycle should be near,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “There are some recent trends that suggest truck freight should improve, albeit gradually, soon.

“Retail sales, housing starts, and even factory output all improved in October, which is a good sign. Most importantly, there has been considerable progress made in clearing out excess stocks throughout the supply chain. While that correction is still ongoing, there has been enough improvement that the negative drag on tonnage shouldn’t be as large going forward,” he said.

ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons and key financial indicators.

 

The Trucker staff can be reached to comment on this article at editor@thetrucker.com.

 

Video Sponsors