NASHVILLE, Ind. — FTR’s February North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook Report continues to forecast only marginal gains for Class 8 truck demand for 2010 even as signs multiply that the demand for truck freight is beginning to improve.
While freight is turning positive and expected GDP growth for 2010 is edging higher, the combination of excess capacity and the impact of the EPA mandate will hold Class 8 equipment demand this year essentially flat compared to 2009, FTR says. The outlook for trailers is improving for 2010 with production levels stabilizing.
“While many would like to see a good upsurge in Class 8 demand this year because of the improving economy, our analysis continues to see a disconnect between the 2010 freight and equipment production outlooks,” said Eric Starks, president of FTR. “We continue to caution against optimism especially in the first half of the year because of the huge overhang in excess, idle equipment. The current lack of Class 8 orders supports our view.”
The full North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook Report is available to subscribers. In addition to FTR’s regular freight, equipment, trucking environment and economic forecasts, the current issue contains commentary explaining how FTR’s analytical methods show that increased freight in 2010 and increasing widespread shortages of truck capacity won’t equate to increased equipment orders in the current year.
FTR Associates, located in Nashville, Ind., has been in transportation forecasting for over 20 years. The company’s U.S. Freight Model collects and analyzes all data likely to impact freight movement and is based on specific characteristics for over 200 commodity groups.
Kevin Jones of The Trucker staff can be reached for comment at email@example.com.
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