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Solid freight activity not enough to keep spot rates from falling

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The number of flatbed load posts fell 7 percent while truck posts were down 5 percent compared to the previous week. (Courtesy: GREAT DANE)

PORTLAND, Ore. — Spot truckload rates tumbled during the week ending January 26 despite increases in van and refrigerated load-to-truck ratios, according to DAT Solutions, which operates the DAT network of load boards.

The national average van rate fell below the $2 per mile mark for the first time since September 2017. National average spot reefer and flatbed prices moved lower for the third straight week.

Following are the national average spot truckload rates:

Van: $1.97/mile, down 4 cents

Flatbed: $2.37/mile, down 1 cent

Reefer: $2.34/mile, down 3 cents

Low fuel prices have contributed to recent spot-rate declines (spot rates include a surcharge for fuel). The national average price of on-highway diesel was $2.96 per gallon last week, unchanged from the previous week.

Van Trends

The number of posted dry vans on DAT load boards fell 8 percent compared to the previous week while the number of posted loads held steady, a sign that freight volume remains solid.

Indeed, the van load-to-truck ratio increased to 4.0 loads per truck; it hit a 20-month low of 3.7 the previous week.

However, spot van rates continue to weaken especially in the West. The sharpest drop has been from Los Angeles, where the average outbound rate fell 13 cents to $2.12/mile. That’s down 19 percent over the past four weeks. The average rate from Los Angeles to Chicago was down 19 cents last week to just $1.30/mile.

Flatbed Trends

The number of flatbed load posts fell 7 percent while truck posts were down 5 percent compared to the previous week. As a result, the national flatbed load-to-truck ratio slipped from 21.7 to 21.2 loads per truck.

Reefer Trends

Reefer load posts increased 4 percent while truck posts fell 8 percent, which caused the national reefer load-to-truck ratio to move up from 4.9 to 5.6 loads per truck. Average outbound prices softened in many key markets:

Grand Rapids, Michigan: $3.30/mile, down 7 cents

Chicago: $2.73/mile, down 7 cents

Atlanta: $2.55/mile, down 1 cent

Dallas: $2.06/mile, down 4 cents

Elizabeth, New Jersey: $1.99/mile, down 7 cents

What to watch this week: the effect of extreme weather on spot rates.

Winter storms cause trucking operations to slow, which has the effect of reducing available capacity. The weather also affects shippers and receivers who may have trouble maintaining staffing levels and schedules. Restricted capacity can drive rates up, while slowdowns in business and consumer activity can push rates down. Ultimately, the timing and severity of this current winter storm will determine the impact on rates.

DAT Trendlines are generated using DAT RateView, which provides real-time reports on spot market and contract rates, as well as historical rate and capacity trends. The RateView database is comprised of more than $60 billion in freight payments.

DAT load boards average 1.2 million load posts searched per business day.

For the latest spot market load availability and rate information, visit http://dat.com/trendlines and follow @LoadBoards on Twitter.

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ACT Research: Freight rates and trucker profits pressured In 2019

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ACT Research’s report indicated that at present the slowdown seems to be more a story of the second-half 2018 order pull-forward and large backlogs, and less about freight cycle and capacity issues. (The Trucker file photo)

COLUMBUS, Ind. — While overall economic conditions are better balanced than they were a month ago, freight data remain soft, according to ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Report.

“Slower freight growth, an easing of driver supply constraints, the resumption of the long-run freight productivity trend, and strong Class 8 tractor fleet growth will increasingly pressure rates, and by extension, trucker profits in 2019,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT Research’s president and senior analyst. “Regarding Class 8, orders have decelerated sharply over the past several months, with net orders in January reaching 16,089 units, the lowest monthly order intake since October 2016.”

The report indicated that at present the slowdown seems to be more a story of the second-half 2018 order pull-forward and large backlogs, and less about freight cycle and capacity issues.

Regarding the medium duty markets, Vieth said, “January’s Classes 5-7 net orders were a virtual carbon copy of December, at around 23,000 units, and medium duty orders have been a model of consistency the past ten months. However, they are entering a period of tough year-ago comparisons.”

ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies.

More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

 

 

 

 

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Stay Metrics introduces new indicator for trends in early-stage driver turnover

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This chart shows that approximately 60 percent of the more than 3,000 drivers from 89 carriers hired in January 2018 did not make it one year with their carrier. (Courtesy: STAY METRICS)

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Stay Metrics, the leading provider of driver retention tools, has released a new indicator for trends in early-stage driver turnover.

The new Stay Days Table serves as a “survivor” chart that shows the number of drivers hired by carriers each month and the percentage remaining at specific milestones after their date of hire —30 days, 60 days, 90 days, etc.

This table allows Stay Metrics to follow specific cohorts of drivers and to show how well carriers are retaining them over time, according to Tim Hindes, Stay Metrics co-founder and CEO.

As the table makes clearer than previous models, early driver turnover is a massive, industry-wide problem, Hindes said, noting that approximately 60 percent of the more than 3,000 drivers from 89 carriers hired in January 2018 did not make it one year with their carrier.

Retention trends seem to have remained consistent throughout the year so similar results are expected for each month’s cohort.

Hindes said the statistics come at a time when the driver shortage is of critical concern to motor carriers.

According to the American Transportation Research Institute’s 2018 Top Industries survey, the driver shortage is the No. 1 issue faced by carriers.

Unsurprisingly, driver retention is also high at the No. 3 spot.

Together these concerns are causing significant problems for even the best carriers in the industry.

They work exceptionally hard to find drivers in today’s market. If 60 percent of these drivers leave within one year, the driver shortage is not just an issue; it is a crisis, Hindes said.

“We believe the new Stay Days Table demonstrates the depth and pervasiveness of the early driver turnover problem. Our clients consistently beat industry averages for overall retention and this is their Stay Days Table. It represents some of the best in the industry,” Hindes said. “With drivers leaving so early, the driver shortage cannot be effectively countered. Our current version shows data for 2018 and we plan to update the metric for 2019 and beyond to continue monitoring the industry’s progress.”

The Stay Days Table saw a slight increase in overall retention for drivers hired in September and later. One possible explanation is that these drivers wanted to avoid changing carriers during the holiday season, Hindes said, adding that the data from the next few months will show if these fourth quarter hires match other groups’ retention percentages when they hit later milestones.

 

 

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ATA tonnage index increases 2.3 percent in January

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Compared with January 2018, the SA index increased 5.5 percent. In 2018, the index increased 6.7 percent over 2017, which was the largest annual gain since 1998. (The Trucker file photo)

ARLINGTON, Va. — American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.3 percent in January after falling 1 percent in December. In January, the index equaled 117.3 (2015=100), up from 114.7 in December.

ATA recently revised the seasonally adjusted index back five years as part of its annual revision.

“After monthly declines in both November and December, tonnage snapped back in January,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “I was very pleased to see this rebound. But we should expect some moderation in tonnage this year as most of the key sectors that generate truck freight tonnage are expected to decelerate.”

Compared with January 2018, the SA index increased 5.5 percent. In 2018, the index increased 6.7 percent over 2017, which was the largest annual gain since 1998.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 113.1 in January, which was 2.9 percent above the previous month (109.9). In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015.

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 70.2 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 10.77 billion tons of freight in 2017. Motor carriers collected $700.1 billion, or 79.3 percent of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around 5th day of each month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons, and key financial indicators.

 

 

 

 

 

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