Turmoil in the Middle East continues to prop up diesel fuel prices in addition to causing some freight volume fluctuation. Even so, freight numbers are a reason for optimism.
The Cass Transportation Index for March shipments shows a 3% increase in shipment numbers over February — but a 4.5% decline from March 2025 levels. Because of rate increases, however, the index showed a 4.9% increase in shipping expenditures over February numbers and a 4.2% increase over March 2025.
The trend is in the right direction.
Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research who writes the Cass report, is cautiously optimistic.
“After a four-year bottoming phase of the for-hire cycle, we believe we’ve moved on to the early cycle phase where capacity becomes short and rates rise,” he wrote.
Denoyer attributed the capacity crunch, at least in part, to sluggish truck sales and the difficulty of finding qualified drivers.
“In addition to new Class 8 tractor sales below levels needed to sustain the fleet since last year, our survey of medium and large fleets suggests we recently entered into a driver shortage,” he wrote.
Denoyer points to non-domicile CDL and English language proficiency (ELP) rules as factors in reducing the number of available drivers. While the actual impact of either program is difficult to quantify, any action that reduces the number of drivers in the nation’s fleet has the effect of tightening capacity.
The Cass Transportation Indexes are compiled using billing data from Cass customers and include shipments by truck, rail, ship, barge, air and pipeline. Trucking makes up nearly three-quarters of the totals.
Spot and contract rates showed signs of improvement in March.
DAT Trendlines showed an average March spot rate for dry van loads of $2.52 per mile. That’s up a half-percent from February and up 4.5% from March 2025.
Spot rates in the refrigerated segment climbed to $2.98 per mile, but considering that rates in March are always higher, that rate wasn’t as good as expected. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spot rates were about 0.4% lower than they were expected to be. In the flatbed segment, national average spot rates grew to $3.09, 1.1% better than February and 4.7% better than March 2025.
Preliminary estimates for all three segments show rate gains for April to date, with the final numbers yet to come.
On the contract freight side, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its Truck Tonnage Index grew by 0.3% in March, following a 2.9% increase in February. The ATA report is comprised of data received from its membership, which is primarily medium to large carriers that haul mostly contract freight. The ATA index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest level since October of 2022.
“While March wasn’t particularly strong sequentially, it was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The first quarter of 2026 was also the best performance since the third quarter of 2017 when considering both sequential and year-over-year results.”
Supply side recovery is inching upward.
Speaking at the annual Truckload Carriers Association convention in Orlando, Florida, on March 2, Costello pointed out that the current market improvement is a “supply side recovery.” The shrinkage in the number of trucks available to haul freight has resulted in rates moving upward, he told convention attendees.
At the same time, he cautioned that the demand side of the equation, the amount of freight being presented by shippers, isn’t growing appreciably.
“We’re moving in the right direction,” he said in the March 2 address. “But I feel like it is also necessary to give you the full picture. And while we are absolutely moving in the right direction on supply, there’s not a ton of demand percolating up at this point.”
Costello also cautioned about “stagflation” in his address, pointing out that trucking costs have risen faster and farther than revenues received.
These words were spoken just days after the U.S. launched “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, killing the country’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other senior officials. As a result, global oil prices rose dramatically, increasing the average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel from $3.81, as Costello delivered his remarks, to a high point of $5.64 the week beginning April 6. Continued conflict, especially over the Strait of Hormuz, has held diesel prices over $5.40 since then.
Middle East turmoil isn’t the only factor impacting trucking.
Some thought that the recent Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the basis for imposing tariffs might settle markets by removing tariffs.
It didn’t happen.
Instead, the Trump administration immediately sought to reimpose tariffs under different authority. Another ruling by SCOTUS would require another case winding its way through the judicial system, at which point the administration could simply try yet another law.
In a March 27 update to the “Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook,” ACT Research listed tariffs listed as one of the reasons for the increased cost of new Class 8 trucks.
“Tariffs remain embedded in equipment pricing,” the release noted. Also listed were higher interest rates, insurance premiums and compliance costs. “These combined pressures are reinforcing disciplined capital allocation and limiting near-term capacity expansion,” the release said.
Other factors prevent the industry from entering a full recovery phase.
Looking forward to the remainder of 2026, ACT’s Outlook reflected cautious optimism.
“The trucking industry is not yet in a full recovery phase — but it is now firmly transitioning out of the oversupply conditions that defined the prior two years,” the report read. “Capacity contraction is accelerating, driver availability is tightening, and both spot and contract rate floors are resetting higher.
The cost of credit isn’t likely to change soon, based on the refusal of the Federal Reserve to lower its preferred interest rate at its March 17-18 meeting. A lower rate would indicate FED confidence that inflation isn’t likely to increase before the April meeting, and possibly a lower borrowing rate for those financing equipment … but it didn’t happen.
For those struggling to stay afloat during these economic times, the ACT press release summed it up:
“ACT Research now views 2026 as a supply-driven transition year, characterized by tightening capacity, improved pricing dynamics and gradual margin recovery.”
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
