EIA forecasts lower diesel prices next year, but tight supplies and refining costs could keep fuel expenses frighteningly high.
Halloween may bring its share of ghosts and goblins, but for truck drivers and motor carriers, one of the scariest sights this month has been the price displayed on diesel pumps across the country.
With the national average on-highway diesel price topping $6.35 per gallon, fuel costs are giving the trucking industry plenty of reasons to shudder. And while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts some relief in 2027, its latest outlook suggests the industry’s fuel-cost nightmares may not be over just yet.
The national average on-highway diesel price reached $6.352 per gallon Oct. 26, an increase of 7.6 cents from the previous week and $2.634 higher than the same period in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly fuel price report.
While the agency expects prices to ease next year, its latest forecast suggests that relief will be gradual — and diesel will remain more expensive than it was before this year’s sharp increases.
In its Oct. 6, 2026, Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecast that retail diesel prices will average $5.19 per gallon in 2026 before declining to $4.49 in 2027. That’s still 83 cents higher than the $3.66 average recorded in 2025.
For an industry where fuel prices represent one of the largest operating expenses, the difference could have a significant impact on profitability.
Relief ahead, but forecasts are rising
Although EIA expects diesel prices to decline next year, the agency has become less optimistic about how much relief is coming. Its October outlook raised the projected average diesel price for 2026 by 12 cents per gallon, compared with the September forecast. The 2027 projection increased by 9 cents, from $4.40 to $4.49.
EIA also revised its forecast for Brent crude oil, an international benchmark used to track oil prices. The agency now expects Brent to average $96 per barrel in 2026 and $84 in 2027, increases of $5 and $10, respectively, from its September estimates.
Despite the higher projections, EIA expects oil production and exports from the Middle East to improve over the forecast period, helping ease pressure on crude oil prices. However, the agency cautions that ongoing supply disruptions and declining global oil inventories could contribute to continued volatility.
Why diesel remains expensive
The price of crude oil is only part of the equation when it comes to diesel prices.
According to EIA’s petroleum products analysis, retail diesel prices have also been driven higher by increasing refining costs and tight supplies of distillate fuels, a category that includes diesel and heating oil.
One important factor is the “crack spread,” an industry term describing the difference between the price of crude oil and the wholesale price of refined petroleum products. When supplies of diesel are tight, refiners can command higher wholesale prices, widening that spread.
EIA expects refining margins to ease as inventories recover, but the agency forecasts that diesel crack spreads will remain elevated compared with historical averages.
Even if wholesale prices decline, those decreases may not immediately translate into lower prices at truck stops and other retail outlets. EIA expects diesel prices to remain above $4 per gallon throughout 2027.
Winter demand adds pressure
The approaching winter heating season could create additional challenges for diesel supplies. EIA reports that East Coast distillate fuel inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September. The agency expects regional inventories to remain 20% to 30% below average through the upcoming winter.
The East Coast is particularly vulnerable because the region consumes more distillate fuel than it produces. Supplies must be supplemented by shipments from other regions, including the Gulf Coast, as well as imports.
Heating oil demand typically increases during colder months, creating additional competition for available distillate supplies.
Although EIA expects inventories to recover gradually during 2027, continued supply constraints could keep upward pressure on diesel prices, particularly in affected regions.
What lower prices could mean for trucking
For truck drivers and motor carriers, even a relatively modest change in diesel prices can make a substantial difference in operating costs.
Consider a Class 8 truck traveling 100,000 miles annually and averaging 6 miles per gallon: That truck would consume approximately 16,667 gallons of diesel each year.
At EIA’s projected 2026 annual average of $5.19 per gallon, the truck’s annual fuel expense would total approximately $86,500. At the projected 2027 average of $4.49, that cost would fall to approximately $74,833 — a difference of nearly $11,700.
For a fleet operating 100 similar trucks, the potential difference would exceed $1.1 million annually.
These examples assume consistent mileage and fuel economy and use EIA’s annual average forecasts, rather than actual fuel purchases. They also do not account for discounts or fuel surcharge arrangements. Fuel surcharges can help carriers recover some of the expense, but the timing and structure of those agreements can affect how much of a fuel price increase is absorbed by the carrier. Owner-operators and small fleets may be especially sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, particularly when freight rates do not keep pace with operating expenses.
An uncertain road ahead
EIA’s October forecast offers some reason for optimism, but it also underscores the uncertainty surrounding diesel prices. The agency expects improving crude oil supplies and gradually recovering distillate inventories to bring prices lower next year. However, the forecast was completed October 1 and does not incorporate subsequent market developments.
With global supply disruptions, refining costs and winter demand continuing to influence the market, trucking companies may have to contend with elevated fuel expenses well into 2027.
For now, the outlook points toward eventual relief at the pump — but not necessarily a return to the comparatively lower diesel prices of 2025.
Linda Garner-Bunch has been with The Trucker since 2020, picking up the reins as managing editor in 2022. Linda has nearly 40 years of experience in the publishing industry, covering topics from the trucking and automotive industry to employment, real estate, home decor, crafts, cooking, weddings, high school sports — you name it, she’s written about it. She is also an experienced photographer, designer and copy editor who has a heartfelt love for the trucking industry, from the driver’s seat to the C-suite.
