According to the Cass Freight Index, freight volumes are experiencing one of the air pockets Cass has warned about in recent months.
“We expect more to come after a reprieve in Q3,” Cass said. “However, tariffs are also raising vehicle prices, and heavy truck makers are reducing production. In 2H’25, NA Class 8 production is set to fall more than 25% from 1H’25. As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. But the silver lining of lower vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market next year.”
Freight volumes declined in July compared to both last year and the prior month. Tariffs hit shipments harder in the most recent data, as paybacks began from demand pull-forwards earlier in the year.
Shipments
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index declined 1.8% in July m/m, and fell 1.7% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms.
The y/y decline in shipments widened to 6.9% in July, after a 2.4% y/y decline in June.
Tariffs hit shipments harder in the most recent data, as paybacks began from demand pull-forwards earlier in the year, though goods prices are still relatively steady.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another considerable decline in 2025.
In August, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 8% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern, but may decline less given the recent rise in imports.
Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.5% m/m in July. The y/y gain slowed to 0.4% from 2.6% in June, marking the fourth straight increase after more than two years of declines.
The y/y increase was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 6.9% in July. We infer rates rose 7.9% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix, similar to the past several months, with more truckloads and lower LTL mix.
In SA terms, the index fell 0.6% m/m, with shipments down 1.7% and rates up 1.1%.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
Inferred Freight Rates
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.3% m/m in July, and 1.1% SA.
The 7.9% y/y increase is outpacing freight markets, but mix is currently shifting toward TL from LTL. This is typically a positive sign of an improving freight cycle, but it is currently more likely a head-fake related to pre-tariff shipping.
After a 7% decline in 2024, freight rates are so far on track to rise in 2025.
“Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would accelerate y/y in August, though a reversion in mix could slow it down,” Cass said. “We do not get the sense market rates are accelerating, as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index confirms.”
Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.6% m/m in July, after a 0.4% increase in June.
The y/y increase accelerated to 2.4% in July from 1.9% in June on an easier comparison.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and after a 1.3% increase in 1H’25, is on track for a small increase in 2025.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
