COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index is reporting the supply and demand balance increased in September, as freight volumes and capacity increased.
It’s an improvement compared to the dismal outlook from August.
The Volume Index
The Volume Index increased 8.8 points m/m to 55.1 seasonally adjusted (SA) in September, from 46.3 in August. September marked a 13-month high as inventory building continued on tariff concerns, and consumer spending continued to exceed expectations.
“Growing consumer pessimism and slowing real income growth as consumers begin to feel the effects of tariffs remain risks to volumes in the short term,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst, ACT. “In addition to inflationary pressures, the expected payback from numerous freight pull forwards will likely weigh on volumes in the coming months. While the outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, private fleets beginning to relent market share is positive for for-hire volumes moving forward.”
The Capacity Index
The Capacity Index increased 2.1 points m/m, to 47.5 in September from 45.4 in August.
“Capacity continues to contract as current industry financial conditions remain a constraint on investment,” Vieth said. “The pullback in capital spending, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will help to tighten capacity further. Ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and regulations is also likely to keep equipment buying under pressure in the short term.”
The Supply-Demand Balance
The Supply-Demand balance increased in September to 57.6 (SA), from 51.0 in August, on improved volumes spurred by tariff concerns and further supported by capacity contractions.
“The supply-demand balance may retrench in the coming months, as we’re likely near the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs,” Vieth said. “Additionally, goods inflation is expected to pick up in the coming months. Weaker goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but strong demand and tight supply is needed for a new freight cycle to take hold.”
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