According to the Cass Freight Index, winter weather and other factors slows freight down in December.
“Transportation volumes in the for-hire arena fell in December more than expected seasonal drop, but not as a sign of economic weakness,” Cass said. “While the weather was the primary cause, other factors at play likely included earlier retail inventory de-stocking (strong holiday spending), continued payback from pre-tariff shipping and ongoing overcapacity in private fleets.”
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
The three winter storms which hit the Midwest in the first two weeks of December slowed the highway network and created some pent-up demand that was still evident in the spot market in the first half of January.
Holiday consumer spending data suggest retail inventories destocked in recent months as freight shipments across modes were below spending trends.
A rebound from the weather could support January volumes above the normal seasonal trend, which otherwise would have the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 5% y/y.
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 7.2% m/m in December, or 3.2% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reaching a new cycle low.
- The y/y decline in shipments of 7.5% in December was a bit below the full-year decline of 6.1%.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.9% m/m in December. Expenditures were 0.6% below the year-ago level in December, after a 1.2% y/y dip in November.
“The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates,” Cass said. “With shipments down considerably more than overall spending, we can infer higher freight costs.”
- In SA terms, the index rose 0.2% m/m, after a 2.1% m/m increase in November.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.0% m/m in December, after a 0.1% increase in November.
- The y/y increase decelerated to 2.1% in December, from 2.2% in November.
- The increase in rates amid lower volumes supports the assertion that weather was in large part to blame.
- Warmer weather in early January has helped clear the weather-driven backlog, so this rate momentum could be temporary, particularly with volumes slowing seasonally in the next few months.
- But holiday spending surpassed low expectations, inventories likely need restocking, and capacity continues to contract. The market balance briefly tipped toward fleets in December.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
Freight Expectations
“For-hire volumes were clearly soft in Q4 for a number of reasons,” Cass said. “The storms were probably the largest factor in December, but there was also payback from pre-tariff shipping and some ongoing overcapacity in private fleets.”
An active winter is freezing out some freight capacity, supporting the strongest run of spot rates in four years in the four weeks through mid-January. The retrenchment has begun in the dry van market, but reefer spot markets remain particularly tight in January.
“While the soft volume environment persists, after considerable de-stocking in Q4’25, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand,” Cass said.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
