COLUMBUS, Ind. — The US trucking industry hasn’t had a driver shortage in four years, but recent regulatory changes have accelerated the tightening, supporting higher freight rates, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report by ACT Research.
“Spot truckload rates have been rising significantly for several months driven by several factors, but we see the return to driver shortage as a critical factor as the industry prepares for Roadcheck,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president, senior analyst, ACT. “After a four-year bottoming phase of the for-hire cycle, we believe tighter supply has moved us to the early cycle phase where capacity has become short, pressing rates higher.”
“In addition to new Class 8 tractor sales below levels needed to sustain the fleet for over a year now, ACT’s survey of medium and large fleets shows we have entered another driver shortage, the third in the past decade,” Denoyer said. “As the new non-domicile CDL rules took effect in mid-March, the ACT Driver Availability Index tightened 4.8 points, to 35.0 in March from 39.8 in February.”
Driver Availability a Key Capacity Component
“Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates,” Denoyer said. “The past two rate cycles started around the time this index fell below 40. With effects of regulations likely to increase and equipment costs set to rise in 2027, it will be a massive challenge to turn the tide of tightening capacity, likely supporting a longer than normal cycle, in our view. While the TL driver shortage is front and center, we also added six new intermodal volume forecasts this month, with thanks to our new partners at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
