BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR is reporting that North American (N.A.) Class 8 preliminary net orders subsided in July to 22,000 units, down 31% from June but up 75% year over year (y/y).
“With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model year 2027 engine technology, pricing, and build timing,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “Almost all model year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx regulation. However, EPA’s proposed revisions to the 2027 NOx rule, published on July 14, introduce considerable flexibility for truck and engine manufacturers to address fleet demand.”
Build Slots Still Constrained
Replacement demand, firmer freight rates, improving utilization and a moderate pre-buy to avoid new emissions changes continue to support the market. However, most calendar 2026 truck production is already committed, and manufacturers have yet to open 2027 order boards, so build slots are constrained.
Through July, net orders for 2026 to date were up 120% compared to the same period last year. Orders for the current order season, measured from September 2025 through July 2026, were up 39% y/y. Class 8 orders totaled 344,823 units over the past 12 months.
Impact of EPA’s Proposed Changes
“For example, under EPA’s planned changes, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, subject to the payment of nonconformance penalties (NCPs), which presumably will be passed along to truck buyers,” Moyer said. “Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so.”
Demand Remains Healthy
“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels,” Moyer said. “The next phase of the cycle will depend more on production-related factors than on overall demand, including whether EPA’s proposed flexibility delivers a smoother transition and a longer, shallower post-pre-buy decline in the market.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
