COLUMBUS, Ind. — Capacity remains tight as regulatory and cost pressures continue to shape the U.S. freight market, according to the latest release of ACT Research’s Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report for October 2026.
“All-in, spot rates have been steady for the past few months, but the diesel spike left less in the spot rate, net fuel,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst. “After dropping in Q3 due mostly to spiking diesel costs, spot rates are rebounding in October as capacity tightens earlier than usual this year. If it’s already tight now, it’s a pretty good bet it will still be tight when holiday seasonality reduces capacity in a few weeks.”
Improved Ratios
According to ACT, DAT spot load/truck ratios have improved considerably in recent weeks, particularly adjusting for seasonality.
In the first half of October, dry van spot rates, net fuel (SA), regained essentially all of the ground lost to higher diesel costs over the past few months.
Despite a seasonally soft spot market in early fall, tightening supply conditions and record diesel prices are keeping upward pressure on rates heading into the peak shipping season.
“With the supply response limited in part by the uncertain engine transition and tighter driver regulations, market tightness will persist well into 2027,” Denoyer said. “Even as overall freight demand remains moderate, these supply-side challenges are driving the current rate cycle. The extraordinary environment is also driving shifting modal dynamics, with intermodal volumes on pace for a record year and LTL tonnage growing as tight truckload capacity pushes more freight into adjacent sectors. Shippers are increasingly leveraging intermodal’s cost advantage, with current contract rates 40% below dry van truckload rates.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe.
