WASHINGTON — Every mile costs more when diesel prices climb. A new report from Dow Jones Energy illustrates just how dramatically fuel expenses have increased for the nation’s trucking industry in 2026.
According to the Running on Empty: Diesel Markets in Volatile Times special report, fuel expenditures for commercial trucks climbed from an estimated 51 cents per mile before late February to 89 cents per mile in September — a leap of nearly 75%.
For a commercial truck traveling 100,000 miles annually, that 38-cent difference would translate into an additional $38,000 in fuel costs if sustained throughout the year. For independent owner-operators and small trucking companies operating on tight margins, increases of that magnitude can have a significant impact on profitability.
But the report suggests the problem extends well beyond the price of crude oil. International conflicts, damaged refineries, disrupted shipping routes and limited fuel supplies have combined to create unusually volatile diesel markets. And even if international tensions ease, returning to more stable fuel prices may take time.
Diesel prices reach record levels
The report, published by Dow Jones Energy, which includes Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), examines the forces driving diesel prices worldwide and their effects on industries that depend on the fuel.
According to OPIS, the national average retail diesel price exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time Sept. 10, reaching a record $6.528 on Sept. 22.
Prices have since eased but remain elevated. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the national average on-highway diesel price was $6.127 per gallon for the week of Nov. 9, down 16.5 cents from the previous week but $2.29 higher than a year earlier.
That represents a dramatic change from the relatively stable prices recorded between October 2024 and February 2026, when retail diesel generally fluctuated between $3.51 and $3.75 per gallon, according to OPIS.
Regional differences have also been significant. California’s average retail diesel price reached $8.15 per gallon in September, while Washington state averaged $7.21. Texas, among the least expensive states for diesel that month, still averaged $5.77 per gallon — a record for the state, according to the report.
For trucking companies operating across multiple states, those differences add another complication to managing fuel costs.
Why are diesel prices climbing?
Although crude oil prices influence the cost of diesel, the report identifies limited refining capacity and disrupted supplies of finished petroleum products as major factors behind the 2026 price increases. Refineries convert crude oil into diesel, gasoline and other products. When those facilities are damaged, shut down or operating at reduced capacity, less fuel is available to meet demand.
The report points to two major sources of disruption:
- First, conflict involving Iran and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil and refined petroleum supplies from the Middle East.
- Second, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and restrictions on Russian diesel exports further reduced supplies available to international markets.
The combined disruptions increased competition for diesel from other sources, including the US. In response, US Gulf Coast refiners increased exports to help replace supplies lost from the Middle East and Russia. However, the additional demand also contributed to higher prices in American markets. The result has been a diesel market in which fuel prices have risen substantially faster than crude oil prices.
Why lower prices may take time
The Dow Jones Energy report cautions that easing international conflicts would not necessarily produce immediate relief at the pump. Damaged refineries must be repaired or restored to full production, while shipping operations and international fuel distribution networks may need time to return to normal.
Dow Jones Energy analysts estimate that restoring normal market conditions following a reduction in geopolitical tensions could take approximately 18 weeks, largely because of the time required to recover damaged refining capacity. That estimate depends on improving conditions and does not guarantee that retail diesel prices would return to previous levels within that period. Limited inventories and relatively little unused refining capacity could also leave diesel markets vulnerable to additional disruptions.
Higher fuel costs ripple through trucking
For commercial trucking companies, diesel is more than a commodity traded on international markets: It’s one of the largest expenses associated with moving freight. The impact of rising fuel prices can vary depending on a carrier’s size, operating costs, freight contracts and ability to recover fuel expenses from customers.
Fuel surcharge arrangements can help offset increases, but they don’t necessarily eliminate the financial pressure, particularly when prices change rapidly.
Independent owner-operators and smaller carriers may face additional challenges when negotiating freight rates or absorbing unexpected operating expenses.
The consequences extend beyond trucking.
As transportation costs increase, businesses that depend on truck deliveries can face higher expenses moving raw materials, finished products and consumer goods. Some of those increases can eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices.
Diesel remains essential to transportation
Despite growing interest in battery-electric trucks, alternative fuels and more efficient equipment, Dow Jones Energy expects diesel to remain important to global transportation for decades. The report projects worldwide diesel consumption will peak at approximately 28.4 million barrels per day in 2035 before gradually declining.
Demand in North America is also expected to begin declining after 2035, although the report anticipates continued growth in developing markets where commercial transportation, manufacturing and infrastructure projects depend heavily on diesel-powered equipment.
For the trucking industry, those projections reinforce an important reality: Even as new vehicle technologies emerge, diesel prices will remain an important consideration in operating costs and freight transportation for years to come.
In the meantime, the report’s findings suggest that understanding what happens far beyond America’s highways may be increasingly important to understanding what truckers pay at the pump.
To download the full report, click here.
Linda Garner-Bunch has been with The Trucker since 2020, picking up the reins as managing editor in 2022. Linda has nearly 40 years of experience in the publishing industry, covering topics from the trucking and automotive industry to employment, real estate, home decor, crafts, cooking, weddings, high school sports — you name it, she’s written about it. She is also an experienced photographer, designer and copy editor who has a heartfelt love for the trucking industry, from the driver’s seat to the C-suite.
