BOISE, Idaho. — New end-of-year survey data from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence show the freight market remains under pressure, but optimism is rebounding from early signs of stabilization and improvement.
“Sentiment among small carriers appears to be turning more positive heading into 2026, even though challenges persist from tepid demand, inflationary pressures and slack capacity,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst, Bloomberg. “Spot rates appear poised to move higher as the federal government’s crackdown on noncompliant truck drivers, carriers and commercial driving schools pushes more capacity out of the market.”
More than 600 motor carriers and freight brokers surveyed in late 2025 reported year-over-year declines in rates, volumes, and revenues, but generally have a positive outlook for the first three to six months of 2026.
Volumes and Rates Remain Uneven
Carriers reported ongoing softness in Q4 2025. 45% experienced lower volumes year over year, while 18% saw increases. Brokers experienced a similar mixed trend in the second half of 2025, with 38% reporting lower volumes compared to the same period in 2024 and 35% reporting higher volumes.
Rates proved more challenging, especially for carriers. Only 14% reported year-over-year rate increases in Q4 2025, while 51% saw rates decline and 41% experienced revenue declines. Brokers were divided. 38% said rates were up, 24% said rates were down. Revenue results were mixed with 37% up, 30% down and 32% flat in the second half of 2025.
Peak season also fell short of expectations, with 42% of carriers and 39% of brokers reporting weaker holiday demand compared to the previous year.
“Unlike previous downcycles, which lasted 12 to 18 months, this trucking recession has now exceeded its third year,” said Todd Waldron, vice president of carrier experience, Truckstop. “Transportation companies remain hesitant to allocate resources to a recovery until market signs clearly indicate one is happening. Yet, despite low volumes and rates in 2025, optimism remains for a turnaround in the first half of 2026.”
Uncertainty is Delaying Investments
The data shows that uncertainty is influencing staffing and investment plans. Nearly half of brokers (47%) are hiring additional staff, while 21% remain uncertain about their hiring choices. Carriers remain hesitant to increase capital spending. 68% do not plan to purchase additional equipment in the first half of 2026.
When asked when the market would reach its lowest point, the most common answer from both groups was “don’t know.” More than one-third of carriers (37%) are uncertain about where they’ll be professionally in six months and 67% of brokers expect more broker exits.
Near-Term Outlook Improves
Despite current pressures, 52% of carriers and 53% of brokers expect demand to rise over the next three to six months. 42% of carriers and 44% of brokers expect spot rates to increase, with many others expecting them to remain flat.
Profit outlooks for brokers are improving, along with their preparedness to prevent freight fraud. 53% of brokers expect gross margins to grow in the first half (17% anticipate declines) and 83% believe they are better positioned to combat fraud in 2026 than in previous cycles.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
