A year ago, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) analysts in the trucking industry expected 2025 to be a year of normalization after three consecutive years of uncertainty in the sector.
Pressure on the market that began with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was exacerbated by the continuation of depressed freight rates, and federal policies suppressed M&A activity. The Trump administration was poised to return to the Oval Office, and analysts expected 2025 to be the year those factors returned to normal levels.
Beau McGinnis, now vice-president at Tenney Group, a firm specializing in freight industry M&A, said at the time: “From a freight perspective, a rate perspective and an M&A perspective, things are trending in the right direction.”
Company diversification was supposed to lead the way to expanded M&A activity in 2025 — but that was before the economic initiatives released by the second Trump administration sent a flurry of uncertainty into the markets.
In January, the Truckload Carriers Association and Tenney Group offered a recap of that activity.
Roller Coaster of Initiatives
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and increased tariffs were just two of the early Trump initiatives impacting the economy in 2025, and the effects lasted throughout the year.
With uncertainty comes risk, and many in the transportation and logistics industry decided caution was the best approach when dealing with M&A options. Caution means delay in an area where finalization of deals already takes long periods to complete.
“(The year) 2025 turned out to be a roller coaster ride,” McGinnis said. “It seemed like a year of recovery, but the business environment brought new challenges to the industry — not the least of which were tariffs.”
Still, despite the uncertainties (if not trepidation) in the markets, a dozen major M&A deals were completed in 2025. Two of the most notable of these were Two Roads’ acquisition of Texas Trans Eastern, a firm that had been seemingly making gains in recent years. Likewise, the THMAC-Service Transport Co. merger made headlines.
And while activity may not have been strong among large carriers, many smaller carriers were involved in M&As throughout the year, with more than 550 completed nationwide. The majority of these were in the Southeast region, where 139 M&As were completed.
Balancing the Ride
In reviewing 2025, McGinnis, along with Tenney Group CEO Spencer Tenney, noted that the year turned out to be one of adjustment rather than normalization.
“Going into 2025, we were already past a record length of freight recession, so I don’t think anyone expected this would last the whole year,” Tenney said.
During the year, buyers pursued strategic acquisitions and service breadth, according to analysts. As for sellers, incentives to enter deals hinged on the level of insulation from trade policy risk that could be forecast.
In a year like 2025, these protections proved to be anything but certainties. Some companies fared well, however.
“It was the specialized companies that shone bright. Deals that did get done were well insulated or had solutions buyers ultimately desired in this complex environment,” McGinnis said.
Stalled on the Tracks
As noted earlier, trade policy had a tremendous impact on M&A activity during 2025. Tariff volatility disrupted underwriting, impacting buyers’ ability to confidently enter into agreements.
“Industrywide, we saw a ‘pencils’ down’ approach,” McGinnis said, noting that M&A activity was hampered.
In terms of the “quality” deals that often make up M&A activity during a year, buyers and sellers ran out of time in 2025. Too many risks were involved that needed to be analyzed and overcome. Time also impacted due diligence, the scope of mergers and acquisitions, and cost expansion.
In short, M&A activity simply stalled in a year when it was expected to return to normal levels. Tariff uncertainty, again, guided — and hampered — much of the activity during the year.
“Getting deals done is hard,” Tenney explained. “Tariffs complicated matters. We expect some M&A activity to be pushed to 2026-2027 as a result.”
However, where there is discussion, there is opportunity, and plenty of activity is being discussed in the M&A sector of the trucking industry.
Banking on Curves
As the industry progresses during 2026, proposed deals are being contemplated throughout transportation and logistics, including a major rail merger. As a result, larger and more numerous M&As are expected by December.
According to both Tenney and McGinnis, large- scale asset-based providers are expected to make horizontal integration moves this year. Likewise, broad-based acceleration across the tech sector will encourage more movement in the markets. Supply chain segments bear watching, as cross-border and nearshoring logistics are long term concerns.
In addition, some segments may repel consolidation. Those with high spot rate experience, hi-tech platforms and brokers with little differentiation could slow M&A activity early in the year.
One thing to keep in mind about M&A activity that is not already underway, is that the process cannot completed overnight. M&As are complicated. They involve many factors and they take a great deal of time. As a result, transactions currently in discussion may not close until late 2026.
Watch the Market
Both McGinnis and Tenney say they anticipate a significant spike in M&A activity in the fourth quarter of this year, and they anticipate the increased activity will continue into 2027.
Tenney advises those who are in the market to sell to make the decisions at the right time for their companies.
“Listen to what other owners are planning,” he said, adding that industry indicators can help guide decisions.
Likewise, both Tenney and McGinnis advise that sellers and buyers alike consider where they stand in the market. Define the gaps and identify how buyers and sellers can take best advantage of them. All parties involved must think about capital, risk and — most of all — being opportunistic.
“This ain’t your granddaddy’s trucking industry,” Tenney said.
“I think that based on the prolonged freight recession there are going to be some very strategic moves that we haven’t seen before — horizontal moves,” he concluded. “I think it’s going to change the way that folks see the market.”
Since retiring from a career as an outdoor recreation professional from the State of Arkansas, Kris Rutherford has worked as a freelance writer and, with his wife, owns and publishes a small Northeast Texas newspaper, The Roxton Progress. Kris has worked as a ghostwriter and editor and has authored seven books of his own. He became interested in the trucking industry as a child in the 1970s when his family traveled the interstates twice a year between their home in Maine and their native Texas. He has been a classic country music enthusiast since the age of nine when he developed a special interest in trucking songs.
