MANHASSET, N.Y. — Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting (CMVC) is predicting that Class 8 truck sales will likely remain subpar in 2026.
“The size of the for-hire trucking industry coupled with relatively short truck trade-cycles of for-hire carriers particularly truckload carriers, in relationship to other industries results in the for-hire trucking industry having a large influence on U.S. Class 8 truck sales environment,” CMVC said. “Carrier earnings so far in the fourth quarter indicate profitability in the for-hire trucking industry remains weak. For-hire carriers have largely brought capacity in equilibrium with the sluggish freight environment resulting in a neutral pricing environment, in which carriers nor shippers have pricing power.”
Neutral Pricing and Added Obstacles
According to CMVC, a neutral pricing environment coupled with an elevated inflationary environment results in higher operating costs squeezing carriers’ operating margin resulting in weak profitability. In the near term, carriers will remain focused on controlling expenses, streamlining operations and boosting productivity to increase profitability as they await for higher freight volumes to tighten capacity swinging the pricing pendulum towards carriers.
Federal Policy Impacts
“The federal government’s immigration policy limiting immigrants holding CDLs will reduce capacity in the for-hire trucking industry helping to shift the pricing pendulum slightly-to-moderately towards carriers,” CMVC said. “This will provide the opportunity for carriers to moderately increase freight rates to partially offset higher operating costs. Current low returns to transportation investment in the for-hire trucking industry supports truck replacement demand volumes, as carriers keep capacity relatively stable waiting for an improving freight environment to tighten capacity resulting in carriers gaining pricing power to boost operating margins.”
Sluggish to Moderate Growth Predicted
“CMVC predicts freight volumes will continue to expand at sluggish-to-moderate growth rates in 2026 as U.S. trade policy directly and indirectly weighs on freight growth,” CMVC said. “Higher import prices reduce consumers’ purchasing power and higher input prices are slowing business profits causing businesses to adjust investment spending and employment levels as they control expense and streamline operations to boost profitability.”
Strong GDP growth in the second and third quarters, 3.8% and 4.4%, is not being reflected in the freight environment because AI investment is having an outsize influence on GDP growth. CMVC has seen estimates of $5 trillion being invested in AI by 2030. In the second and third quarters, investment spending on intellectual property products (software) grew at annual growth rates of 15.0% and 5.6% and business investment on equipment/machinery grew 8.5% and 5.2%. Excluding information processing equipment, business investment on equipment/machinery grew 2.6% in the third quarter. In short, the large sums of money being invested in AI is distorting the relationship between GDP growth and the freight environment.
Expansion Capacity Not Expected Until 2027
“Sluggish-to-moderate freight growth will gradually swing the pricing pendulum towards carriers resulting in improved profitability, but for-hire trucking industry profits and returns to transportation investment will not reach levels supporting expansion in capacity until 2027,” CMVC said. “The wildcard to the 2026 Class 8 truck sales outlook is 2027 EPA emission standards, which the EPA is expected to more fully explain in March or April.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
