For-hire freight shipments as measured by the Cass Freight Index rose 0.7% m/m in November.
“This was a 2.7% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Cass said. “Total expenditures moved the opposite direction, falling 0.2% m/m from October. Both indexes are down considerably from last year.”
Cass Freight Index – Shipments
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.7% m/m in November, or 2.7% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reversing the 2.1% SA drop in October.
- The y/y decline in shipments of 7.6% in October was below the -5.8% YTD trend, putting the index on track for a ~6% decline in 2025.
“After truckload volumes briefly improved in Q3 ahead of the October 5 import tariff deadline, they have softened again so far in Q4 as pre-tariff stocks are drawn down,” Cass said. “Resilient early holiday consumer spending data suggest some pent-up demand could be building, but tariffs are likely to continue to press prices higher and affordability lower in 2026.”
- In December, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 4% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.
Cass Freight Index – Expenditures
“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 0.2% m/m in November,” Cass said. “Expenditures were 1.2% below the year-ago level in November, after a 0.2% y/y slip in October. The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. We infer rates rose 6.8% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix with more TL and less LTL, similar to recent months.”
- In SA terms, the index rose 2.1% m/m, below the 2.7% gain in shipments, with rates implied down slightly.
“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024,” Cass said. “In 2025, the index is likely to decline by under 1%, and it could end up flat with a strong December.”
Truckload Linehaul Index
“The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 0.1% m/m in November, after a 1.1% increase in October,” Cass said.
- The y/y increase decelerated to 2.2% in November, from 3.0% in October.
- As holiday spending surpasses low expectations and weather adds to capacity constraints amid the holidays, the market balance is briefly tipping toward fleets in December.
“This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and we estimate a 1.7% increase in 2025,” Cass said.
Freight Expectations
“Frigid December weather, featuring three storms so far, is consistent with the La Nina weather pattern that could continue to bring more storms across the northern U.S. and Canada, while likely leaving the South drier,” Cass said. “This is pinching spot capacity pretty hard during one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year for demand, sending spot rates up in recent weeks.”
Though not necessarily sustainable, as weather effects are typically brief, the stormy winter combines with tightening capacity and contributes to the eventual cycle turn. This moves the freight rate outlook up in the near term.
“On the other hand, news from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) via the American Trucking Associations (ATA) in the past month informed the industry that EPA’27 low-NOx regulations will partially go into effect in 2027,” Cass said. “In a nutshell, the technology improvements stay, but the costly warranty and useful life extensions are jettisoned. Official word from the EPA is still a few months away.”
According to Cass, investment dollars are scarce amid generationally low for-hire truckload profit margins, but this provides new motivation to prebuy in 2026, for those who have the means.
“A large prebuy isn’t likely, since private fleets, who have the means, are still managing down excess capacity from overbuying in 2023-2024,” Cass said. “Still, this provides a degree of moderation for the 2026 rate outlook.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
