According to the Cass Freight Index, shipment and freight expenditures continued to decline in October.
The declines show ongoing challenges in the freight market, however, truckload linehaul rates show modest increases for the second month in a row.
Cass Freight Index – Shipments
Demand air pockets are likely to continue, but the severity of inflation depends on the coming Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, which could occur any time from soon to June.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and is trending toward another considerable decline in 2025.
In November, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 10% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.3% m/m in October, or 2.1% m/m in seasonal adjusted (SA) terms, reversing the gain in September.
- The y/y decline in shipments widened to 7.8% in October, from a 5.4% y/y decline in September.
In recent months, the declines have been concentrated in LTL, as ongoing LTL rate increases in a soft market cause more shippers to consolidate LTL loads into TLs, in addition to the insourcing going on at a pair of mega-shippers.
Cass Freight Index – Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.9% m/m in October. Expenditures were 0.2% below the year-ago level in October, after a 2.2% y/y gain in September.
The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of fewer shipments and higher rates. Cass infers rates rose 8.2% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix with more TL and less LTL, similar to recent months.
In SA terms, this index fell 2.1% m/m, similar to the drop in shipments, with rates unchanged.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures changes in linehaul rates, rose 1.1% m/m in October, after a 1.7% increase in September.
- The y/y increase accelerated to 3.0% in October, from 2.6% in September.
- Some of the recent increase may be temporary, and as pre-tariff activity fades, truckload spot trends have softened in early November.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and Cass expects a short, modest 1.5% increase in 2025.
Freight Expectations
“Fleets continue to struggle financially, and with losses continuing to pile up, investments are being sharply curtailed,” Cass said. “There are a few—quality dedicated service providers in particular—who seem to be operating head and shoulders above the rest. But for the parts of the for-hire trucking industry in the red, and there are many even among quality fleets, the dollars aren’t there for equipment investment, particularly as tariffs push costs up. The commercial vehicle outlook from ACT Research foresees considerable declines in equipment demand in 2026, with rates insufficient to offset cost inflation.”
The public TL fleets’ margins are at generational lows and unable to find traction in 2025. Highway tractor capacity is contracting at a quickening pace, both due to ongoing closures in the for-hire market, and more recently the reversal of private fleet expansion. The issue for the freight cycle is now the affordability reductions that tariffs are beginning to impose on U.S. consumers. These taxes could be mitigated if the Supreme Court upholds rulings that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, which seems possible after oral arguments, according to the report.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
