COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicates the supply and demand balance tightened in March, as freight volumes remained elevated and capacity continued contracting.
The Volume Index
The Volume Index decreased 1.9 points to 60.5 (SA) in March, remaining elevated, though with a bit less demand than February, when the new cycle high of 62.4 was aided by severe winter weather in late January.
“In five of the past seven months, the Volume index has been above 54, a mark reached just twice in the preceding 42 months,” said. Carter Vieth, research analyst, ACT. “As emphasized by the accelerating decline in the Driver Availability Index and the more chronic decline in the Capacity Index, this is largely a supply-driven recovery, though lower tariffs may be helping as well. Even as the outlook for goods demand worsens on spiking fuel prices, for-hire demand is supported by declining supply.”
The Capacity Index
The Capacity Index increased 0.9 points m/m, to 49.0 in March from 48.1 in February, the 12th consecutive month and the 31st of the past 33 months in neutral/contraction territory.
“While rates are signaling capacity to expand again, this is no small challenge, with equipment budgets constrained and driver availability declining,” Vieth said. “Weather also had an effect in January and February, aiding the improvement. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but pre-buying will be largely limited to 2H’26, though noncompliance penalties could extend pre-buying into early 2027.”
The Supply-Demand Balance
The Supply-Demand Balance was tight in February and March at 62.4 and 60.5 (SA), respectively, as capacity contracts and volumes have accelerated.
“We see only part of the recent gains as weather-driven, and the reversal of those gains was interrupted in March by more tightness caused by surging diesel costs,” Vieth said. “While the economy is likely to remain uneven and effects on inflation and interest rates from the war in Iran curtail the demand outlook, lower tariffs support the outlook to some degree. But capacity continues to exit the market, even with growing pre-buy demand ahead of EPA’27.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
