COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in February, as freight volumes increased and capacity continued contracting.
The Volume Index
The Volume Index increased 5.7 points to 62.0, seasonally adjusted (SA), in February, a four-year high, bolstered by January’s large winter storm that buffeted the Midwest, South and East Coast and created a backlog of freight.
“For-hire volumes are benefitting from slowing/contracting private fleet growth, putting loads into the for-hire market even with the current absence of a broader freight demand recovery,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst, ACT. “The repeal of IEEPA and the expiration of §122 tariffs in 150 days should lower the effective tariff rate by roughly 10% and may help to trigger a restock. However, higher oil prices following the conflict with Iran have effectively negated any tariff benefit to consumers in the short term.”
The Capacity Index
The Capacity Index ticked down 0.4 points m/m, to 48.0 in February from 48.4 in January, the 11th consecutive month in neutral/contraction territory.
“Capacity continues to exit as current levels of profitability, despite recent pricing improvements, remain a constraint on investment,” Vieth said. “Weather also had an effect, allowing for some improvement in the coming months. Increased truck orders since the news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but capacity additions will likely be modest until we get closer to 2027.”
The Supply-Demand Balance
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in February to 63.9 (SA), from 58.4 in January, a 4.5 year high as volumes increased and capacity continued to contract.
“While rate gains may ease as the weather improves, FMCSA nondomicile actions should tighten the driver supply further, and as private fleets contract, for-hire demand should improve solely on the return of market share that was ceded between 2022–2025,” Vieth said. “The ending of IEEPA tariffs and the impermanent nature of §122 tariffs may help to lay the groundwork for improved inflation and some restocking, but higher oil prices may cancel out those tailwinds.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
