The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.4% year-over-year in April but increased month-over-month for the third straight time. In seasonally adjusted terms, volumes rose 0.6%—an encouraging signal for a potential second-half recovery.
“At the same time, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 5.6% year-over-year, as tightening capacity and a renewed driver shortage continue to push rates higher,” Cass said.
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down just 1% y/y in May.
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.4% y/y in April, but rose 0.4% m/m, building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February and a 3.0% gain in March.
- In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments rose 0.6% m/m in the third straight gain, increasing the chances of a 2H recovery.
- At the April SA rate, this index would rise 1.7% y/y in 2H’26.
- LTL tonnage trends are improving for some fleets, which bodes well for continued improvement in shipment trends in the coming months. Tightness in the dry van TL market is starting to radiate to other modes, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 3.5% y/y in April, slowing from 4.2% in March,” Cass said.
- In SA terms, the index rose 1.2% m/m in April, after a 2.4% m/m increase in March.
- After a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
- The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3.2% m/m in April, after a 0.5% decline in March.
- After almost no m/m change in February and March, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3.2% m/m in April, to a 5.6% y/y increase.
- After a brief lull, TL rates have resumed their upward march, and are likely to continue in this direction with spot rates up 25% y/y in April. In our (ACT Research’s) view, an incipient driver shortage is a key factor behind the recent turn in market dynamics, among other capacity constraints.
- This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
