The March Cass Freight Index is reporting an increase in industry optimism.
“North American for-hire shipment volumes fell against year-ago levels, but increased 3.0% m/m, beating the seasonal expectation by 1%,” Cass said. “Noting that February saw a large m/m gain, we’re cautiously optimistic about a recovery in the second half of the year. Rate increases in the trucking market are being driven by supply constraints, in our view, as equipment capacity is contracting and we’ve recently re-entered a driver shortage.”
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.5% y/y but rose 3.0% m/m in March, building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February.
- In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments rose 1.0% m/m after a 4.3% m/m gain in February, increasing the chances of a 2H recovery. At the March SA rate, this index would rise 1.5% y/y in 2H’26.
- While this index is starting to catch up with other indicators, the significant less-than-truckload (LTL) mix likely explains why it’s behind. Tightness in dry van truckload (TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well.
The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 5% y/y in April.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 4.2% y/y in March, accelerating from a 2.1% gain in February.
The acceleration was due to the m/m improvement in shipments.
- In SA terms, the index rose 2.4% m/m in March, after a 0.3% m/m increase in February.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.5% m/m in March, after a 0.2% increase in February.
- Truckload rates rose 1.8% y/y in March, after a 2.2% rise in February, and gained 3.4% over two years ago, a little slower than the past two months. Downward pressure as capacity recovered from winter weather was mostly offset by capacity tightening due to higher diesel prices.
- Volumes are beginning to recover, but it is mainly supply constraints supporting higher rates, in our view, as equipment capacity is contracting, and we’ve recently re-entered a driver shortage.
- This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
