As the trucking industry eyes freight rate increases, two major issues continue to roil the markets.
One is the on-again, off-again war with Iran and its impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil supply is shipped through the strait, where shipping has been frequently restricted or shut down completely due to the conflict.
Interrupted oil shipments impact the global supply, resulting in higher barrel prices each time the conflict escalates. As the trucking industry celebrates long-awaited rate increases, much of the increase is lost to higher fuel costs.
The other, potentially larger issue is the U.S. rejection of the 16-year renewal of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada) trade agreement, which was up for review this year. Canada officially requested the extension, which the U.S. refused. At this point, the agreement will be reviewed annually until it expires in 2036 or any participant provides a six-month notice of withdrawal.
How important is this agreement to the economy?
The USMCA created a free trade zone with an economy of nearly $31 trillion of GDP. That’s almost 30% of the world’s economy and the largest trade group on the planet.
More than $1.9 trillion per year in trade occurs between the U.S. and its North American partners. That equates to $5 billion per day, and it makes Canada and Mexico the largest two U.S. trading partners, pushing China to third place.
President Donald Trump has committed to bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US.
Many of those jobs left the U.S. for Mexico and Canada after the implementation of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1994 as manufacturers opened plants in areas with cheaper labor costs.
Trump has stated his desire, for example, to bring more auto manufacturing to the U.S. Doing so will create more jobs for Americans — but it will also increase the prices they pay to purchase autos, increasing the inflation rate. Other areas of the economy can be harmed as trading partners respond with tariffs and trade restrictions of their own.
All of it impacts trucking.
For the month of June, ACT Research’s Trucking Index showed that freight volumes — while still substantial — slowed from May while capacity continued to shrink.
That decline in capacity is important because too many trucks available to haul the nation’s freight is mostly what drove freight rates downward to begin with. Capacity has been shrinking for months, finally allowing rates to begin climbing.
The ACT Index measures operational statistics obtained through surveys of its client carriers. The Index tracks freight volume, pricing, capacity, productivity and driver availability, with a score higher than 50 indicating growth, while a score below 50 indicates degradation.
June’s Index for volume was 65.9, indicating that freight amounts are still growing, but not as much as they did in May (67.7) or April (66.9). Pricing took a similar path, coming in at 70.2 after reaching 79.7 in May and 66.6 in April. Capacity reached 55.0 on the Index, up from May’s 53.5. Productivity also grew, the Index for June was 62.3 compared with 56.3 for May. Driver availability was the only Index in negative territory (below 50), coming in at 34.1 for June compared with 32.6 for May.
Drivers are a hot commodity.
Carriers are already complaining of a driver “shortage” — meaning that they can’t find and hire as many drivers as they’d like with current pay and benefits packages.
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) crackdowns on non-domiciled CDL holders and those who can’t meet English language proficiency (ELP) standards have removed drivers from the fleet — some with citations and out-of-service orders and others voluntarily leaving to avoid enforcement activities. CDL schools that focused on training of immigrants have seen precipitous enrollment declines.
The result is that carriers will be tempted to increase fleet sizes to take advantage of higher rates … but they may need to improve pay and benefits packages to attract the drivers needed for the trucks they buy. Several carriers have already announced new packages.
ACT’s survey indicated that 47% of respondents planned to purchase new equipment in the next three months. That’s down from the historical average of 53%, however.
We’re seeing a pattern of rising rates and steady freight volumes.
The Cass Freight Index showed a 2.9% seasonally adjusted decline in shipments but a 1.2% increase in freight expenditures from its customers, following the pattern of rising rates and steady freight volumes.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) For-Hire Trucking Index rose slightly — just 0.1% — in June after falling 3.2% in May. ATA compiles its Index using data submitted by its membership, primarily mid-to-large size carriers hauling a majority of contract freight.
“While tonnage was little-changed during June, there was a definite weakening in volumes during the second quarter as the index contracted a total of 4.1% during April and May,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “After five straight year-over-year gains, tonnage has now contracted from year-earlier levels for the last two months. While the U.S. economy remains on solid footing overall, the freight economy isn’t as strong.”
Due to late-arriving information, the ATA Index is often revised after the initial report, and the final Index for June could end up at zero or in negative territory.
The DAT Freight and Analytics Trendlines page showed June national average spot rates for dry van came in at $3 per mile, up from $2.89 in May. Compared with June 2025, rates were up 28.7%. Refrigerated spot rates on the nation’s largest load board came in at $3.40 per mile, up from May’s $3.36 and up a whopping 93.8% from June 2025 rates. Flatbed spot rates rose to a national average of $3.70 per mile, up from $3.66 in May and up 34.7% from June 2025 rates.
Of course, we can’t forget the cost of fuel.
Diesel fuel pricing remains an obstacle to profitability, with the U.S. average price per gallon coming in at $4.67 as June ended, compared with $3.73 at the same point last year, an increase of 25.2%. Prices have increased further since then. Carriers with fuel surcharge agreements in place or who seek pricing adjustments on brokered loads will do better.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
