The size of the nation’s trucking fleet has continued to shrink, decreasing the capacity “supply” available to haul the available economic demand — but will it be enough to push freight rates higher?
The signals are mixed, as winter weather has pushed spot rates higher, making it hard to tell if the improvements will last.
DAT Freight and Analytics reported that spot truckload freight rates surged in December, reaching their highest monthly averages of 2025. Spot rates for dry van climbed 20 cents per mile to $2.29 per mile, while refrigerated rates jumped 15 cents to an average of $2.69 and flatbed rates grew by six cents per mile to $2.53.
The news, however, wasn’t as good as it seemed, according to Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics.
“A combination of seasonality, weather, the quirks of the holiday calendar, and constrained capacity drove prices substantially higher, as opposed to stronger freight volumes,” he explained.
The Cass Freight Index for Shipments fell 7.2% in December compared to November, but when seasonally adjusted, the drop was just 3.2%. A better indicator might be the comparison with December 2024: The index fell 7.5% in December 2025, while the amount spent on shipping fell 0.6%.
Overall, however, conditions improved for trucking as shipping rates actually rose, according to Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst for ACT Research, who writes for the Cass Freight reports.
“The increase in rates amid lower volumes supports the assertion that weather was in large part to blame,” Denoyer said. “But holiday spending surpassed low expectations, inventories likely need restocking, and capacity continues to contract.”
The market balance briefly tipped toward fleets in December.
Tariffs continue to impact market
The upcoming Supreme Court decision on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)to impose tariffs could make a huge impact on shipping levels.
The court will attempt to nail down what constitutes an “international emergency” and whether such an emergency existed when the president enacted tariffs without congressional approval, which is required in non-emergency situations.
Should the Supreme Court rule against the Trump administration, importers will likely scramble to bring products into the U.S. before a replacement for tariffs can be put in place. Such a move could stimulate the economy, with the trucking industry reaping the reward.
“We think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand,” Denoyer said.
“Growth has been led by a narrow segment of the economy, but it has room to broaden out if the looming Supreme Court tariff decision brings tariffs down,” Denoyer explained in a separate report. “This would lead to additional broad disinflation, providing more leeway for the Fed to further lower rates, spurring freight-sensitive sectors like housing and durable goods.”
Volume remains stagnant
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in December after a gain of 0.2% in November. It was barely enough to bring freight volumes up a tenth of a percent for the entire year.
“Despite two consecutive gains, tonnage remains at low levels as the freight metric contracted a total of 2.7% in September and October,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist.
“Soft manufacturing and construction activity are continuing to suppress freight levels, as they did for much of last year,” he continued. “For 2025 in total, tonnage rose just 0.1% over the 2024 average, although it was the first annual gain since 2022.”
The ATA index is compiled using data from surveys of its member carriers and contract freight rates comprise a large part of the numbers. The Cass Freight Index is compiled from data collected from client billing and contains data from trucking plus other transportation modes, such as pipeline, ship, air and rail.
The ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index, comprised of data received in surveys of the company’s clients, shows freight volumes at 61.6. A score above 50 indicates positive movement. Pricing, productivity and driver availability all finished in positive territory, with capacity just barely, standing at 50.1.
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in December to 61.5, according to ACT, reaching a four-year high point. How much of that was weather related as opposed to the amount indicative of economic growth is pure conjecture.
Factors impacting freight
One action that could help stimulate the economy could occur at the scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee during the last week of January. Another cut to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate could reduce mortgage interest rates, stimulating the stagnant housing market.
However, the Fed has indicated it may hold off on further cuts until more is known about the economic impact of actions by the Trump administration. The recent revision of the third-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) estimate to 4.3% indicates a need to leave interest rates alone — or to even raise them to keep inflation at an acceptable level.
Another factor that figures to impact freight rates is the increase in orders for new Class 8 trucks seen in December. After months of low order numbers, buyers came through with 42,684 orders for new trucks in December, according to ACT.
For all of 2025, just 224,000 orders for Class 8 trucks were placed on the North American market, well below 2024 level. December, however, was up 16% compared with December 2024. With carriers reporting low rates and low revenues, the surge in orders was unexpected.
“Given carrier margins remained thin into the end of 2025, the sudden swing certainly overstates demand,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst for ACT, noting that he believes several factors drove the order surge. “For starters, the economy, supported by AI and wealthy households, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3.”
Vieth also cited higher spot rates in December before touching on what is likely the biggest reason for increased truck buys: the EPA clarification of engine emission standards changes for model year 2027.
It’s likely the need for carriers to replace aging stock, along with clarity over potential cost increases next year, motivated higher ordering activity. The caveat is that higher order numbers counteract capacity contractions, potentially prolonging freight rate stagnation
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
