The freight market is showing encouraging signs of recovery, with shipment volumes and rates climbing faster than seasonal averages — but soaring diesel prices threaten to take a bite out of those gains.
Freight shipments gain ground
The Cass Freight Indexes for September 2026 showed solid improvement in both shipment numbers and in freight expenditures, both outpacing their seasonal averages.
The Cass Index for Shipments improved 2.3% over August shipment numbers, a total increase of 1.4% when seasonal factors are taken into account. Compared with September 2025, the index rose 1.9%. On the expenditures side, the gain from 2025 was 20.4%, rising 6.7% from August.
The Cass report, written by ACT Research Vice President and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer, notes that September showed the second consecutive year-over-year gain in shipments after 3.5 years of declines.
The report credits “modest retail and industrial growth” and points to a surge in container imports. It isn’t known if the surge in imports is a result of the February SCOTUS ruling striking down tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but imports certainly slowed as the tariffs were implemented. Manufacturers and retailers may be replenishing stocks of supplies and goods that dwindled while the tariffs were in effect.
The Cass report notes that “rising oil prices and interest rates are limiting factors” but states that “cycle is on a positive track,” concluding that “this could be the start of a trend.” Cass data is compiled using payment data from its customers and while the majority of shipment and payment data are from truckload, other modes of transport are included. These can include rail, ship, air, pipeline and more.
Intermodal rail volumes point to stronger demand
ACT Research adds its freight expectations to the Cass report, pointing to a significant increase in North American intermodal rail volumes as evidence that freight levels are improving.
“We estimate 19.3 million intermodal loads in 2026, breaking the previous record of 18.9 million in 2018,” the report said. “And we expect 2027 to be another record year, with the intermodal cost advantage above average.”
With diesel fuel costs reaching new record levels, rail transportation costs have become more attractive compared with trucking. An increase in rail intermodal loads indicates that shippers and carriers are looking for a more economical method of moving freight. Rail is several times more efficient than trucking on the basis of freight miles per gallon — but it is limited in pickup and delivery flexibility.
Spot rates climb as capacity tightens
In a separate release about this year’s holiday freight projections, Denoyer says the freight market is looking good for this fall and winter.
“After dropping in Q3, due mostly to spiking diesel costs, spot rates are rebounding in October as capacity tightens earlier than usual this year,” he said. “If it’s already tight now, it’s a pretty good bet it will still be tight when holiday seasonality reduces capacity in a few weeks.”
According to the DAT Freight & Analytics Trendlines report, dry van spot rates increased 4.2% in September over August rates and were 46.8% higher than in September 2025. Refrigerated spot rates did even better, rising 6.8% over August rates and up 48.8% over September 2025. Flatbed rates also rose, 2.3% higher in September than in August and 44.2% higher than September 2025.
Truckstop.com’s Spot Market Insights, reported in conjunction with FTR Transportation Intelligence, notes that dry van spot rates that were 48% higher than the same period in 2025. Both refrigerated and flatbed rates were 42% higher.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.8% in September after a 0.2% decline in August. The ATA report is dominated by contract freight, with shipment numbers provided by its membership. Contract freight rates typically lag behind spot rates in the time it takes to change.
“Truck tonnage ended the quarter on a better note, but weakness in July and August pushed the third quarter reading into negative territory both sequentially and from a year earlier,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist. “We are seeing soft tonnage levels, but capacity is still contracting, which is leading to a better market for motor carriers.”
Trucking’s reach extends across the economy
The ATA also released its annual American Trucking Trends compendium with information about the state of U.S. trucking. Although the report itself must be purchased, the ATA press release announcing the report listed some key findings. Among these is that 91.1% of carriers operate 10 or fewer trucks, and less than 1 percent (0.8%) of carriers operate 100 or more power units.
The ATA release also notes that the industry employed 8.5 million people in 2025, including 3.45 million professional drivers.
As for trade between the U.S. and North American partners Canada and Mexico, trucking was responsible for 68% of goods across the Canadian border and 86% of goods across the Mexican border.
Diesel costs eat into freight gains
Diesel fuel averaged $3.68 per gallon nationally in October 2025, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). With a national average price of $6.22 for October 2026, diesel fuel costs have risen 69% over the past year, consuming a huge portion of the increased revenues. The West Coast remains the most expensive place to purchase diesel fuel, with California far and away the most expensive at over $8 per gallon.
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 6, predicted that oil flows from the Middle East will “remain constrained” through the remainder of 2026. The EIA also raised its global oil price forecast, upping its Brent crude oil spot price to $105 per barrel, a $14 increase from its September estimate.
East Coast distillate fuel inventories fell 32% below their five-year average, according to the EIA report. That’s not a good thing, as homeowners in the Northeast U.S. fill their fuel oil tanks in preparation for winter, and the agriculture sector is still buying fuel for the harvest. Distillate fuel inventories typically decline during these activities. Fortunately, the winter in the Northeast is predicted to be warmer than usual this year due to the El Niño system in the Pacific, potentially reducing fuel oil usage.
In the meantime, damaged shipping and pipelines have resulted in increased costs for moving crude, adding to fuel expense. While fuel costs have declined slightly in the past few weeks, they are expected to remain high.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
