Carriers and drivers are keeping a close eye on driver wages as shrinking trucking capacity pushes freight rates higher and sends carriers scrambling to add drivers. Some carriers have already increased pay to make their driving positions more attractive, while others have raises in the works. With high operating costs already taking a chunk out of increased revenues, however, carriers may be reluctant to boost what is already one of their largest expenses.
However, Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics, thinks some carriers may be acting too quickly.
“The driver supply issue has cooled down a little bit — not to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s lost some of its steam after the July Fourth seasonal peak,” he said. “There were four or five press releases with carriers talking about record high pay increases and benefits, but you can also see there’s been a lack of headlines around driver pay increases since then.”
Croke pointed to the Superior Trucking Payroll Service (STPS) Driver Pay Index, which tracks actual gross compensation, including per diem, paid to W-2 drivers employed by participating small and midsize carriers nationwide. Unlike advertised cents-per-mile rates, the index reflects actual payroll data.
The index reached an all-time high of 170.04 in June 2026, compared with its January 2020 baseline of 100. By September, it had dropped to 154.13 — still above the 141.9 recorded in January 2023, during the pandemic-era pay cycle.
Croke believes the recent decline reflects seasonal freight patterns rather than a reversal in the overall trend toward higher driver compensation.
“I think it’s a pause, and we’re going to see a sustained increase in driver compensation when demand starts to return,” he said. “That has to happen because of the tightening of driver standards around English language proficiency and immigration status, but more so on the CDL training school side of the ledger. That’s going to really slow down the drivers coming into the industry.”
Fewer drivers, higher rates
The Truckload Carriers Association (TCA) has supported the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) efforts to strengthen enforcement of driver qualification standards, even as those efforts could further tighten the driver market.
Hair testing for controlled substances, another priority for TCA, could reduce the pool of eligible drivers even further, according to Croke.
“If they bring in hair testing for random pre-employment drug testing, then the market for viable drivers gets very tight, and the only way you overcome that is with higher compensation and benefits,” he said.
Meanwhile, freight rates are already climbing despite relatively flat demand.
“Spot freight rates are 35% higher year over year, yet demand is flat. And on the contract rate side, they’re repricing up around 12 to 15% higher than a year ago,” Croke said.
“So, if you ask, ‘If demand is flat, why are rates repricing higher?’ Well, it’s because of the exodus of capacity and the increasing tightness of finding drivers,” he added.
In other words, the capacity crunch isn’t being driven by an economic boom. Manufacturing hasn’t surged, and there’s been no major increase in imports to generate additional freight.
That could change, however. If freight demand rebounds while the supply of qualified drivers remains tight, competition for drivers could become even more intense.
“At some point, when demand returns, we’re going to need a lot more drivers — which means to attract drivers from other industries, you’re going to need to pay them a lot more money,” Croke said.
The shortage could also force carriers to reconsider how drivers are compensated.
“I don’t know whether we get to annual salaries or paying drivers for every hour they work or what that means, but if good drivers become really scarce, then you’re going to have to pay them for every hour they work, not this free two hours to unload stuff,” he said. “There’s a reckoning coming.”
For carriers, a rebound in freight demand could bring welcome relief in the form of higher rates — along with the challenge of finding enough drivers to haul the additional freight.
“Freight rates are going to go through the roof,” Croke said. “They will surge.”
Tougher road to independence
Higher freight rates typically encourage some company drivers to purchase their own trucks and become independent contractors (ICs). Carriers may also make their truck lease programs more attractive as they compete for a shrinking pool of drivers.
But Croke doesn’t expect a repeat of the pandemic-era rush into truck ownership.
“We saw this influx during the pandemic, he noted. “Remember, money was falling from the sky. This time, it’ll be a different kind of carrier because the barriers have gotten higher.”
When the pandemic freight boom ended, many carriers went out of business, leaving large numbers of trucks to be repossessed. In response, lenders tightened credit requirements. Down payments increased, credit scores became more important, and some lenders began requiring business plans before approving loans.
Insurance presents another obstacle.
“Medical costs are going up. Claims costs, litigation costs. The insurance underwriting market is getting tighter,” Croke said. “So, I think insurance becomes a big barrier. It provides a cushion to all these higher costs.”
Diesel adds pressure
Fuel costs are another concern. Although fuel surcharges can offset at least some of the expense, diesel prices remain a significant threat to carrier profitability.
Croke believes the problems facing global petroleum markets could make matters worse.
“We’ve gone from an oil crisis to a refinery capacity crisis to now a shipping crisis — the ability to move crude oil and finished product around the world,” he said. “There’s a shortage of vessels. And if you look at the Baltic Exchange, the day rate for a crude oil tank has gone from $55,000 to over a million dollars.”
Croke pointed to conflict in the Middle East as a major factor driving transportation costs higher.
“The cost of moving crude today is about $24 a barrel versus $2 a barrel pre-war,” he said.
How serious could the situation become? Croke isn’t optimistic.
“Diesel could be the biggest story of our lifetime if it doesn’t get under control really quickly,” he said.
Keep drivers moving
With driver compensation and operating expenses rising, carriers face the challenge of remaining competitive without sacrificing profitability.
Croke’s advice for carriers trying to recruit and retain drivers goes beyond offering higher pay. The right freight mix, he says, can be just as important.
“Other than pay a competitive compensation rate, it’s really about utilization,” he said. “You’ve got to be able to give them the miles. You can’t be deadheading, and you can’t be sitting on loading docks. You’ve got to get the right customer mix that keeps those trucks rolling.”
This article first appeared in the November/December 2026 print edition of Truckload Authority, the official publication of the Truckload Carriers Association.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
