BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR is reporting preliminary net orders for North American Class 8 trucks/tractors fell more than seasonally expected in November, dropping 17% month-over-month.
It’s also a 44% drop year-over-year (y/y) to 20,200 units – well below the 10-year November average of 28,910. Orders have totaled 214,797 units over the last 12 months.
“So far, improved clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges – weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and so on – that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization over growth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm. For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery.”
Fleets Continue to Defer Replacement and Expansion Plans
The pullback persisted despite modest improvements in tariff and regulatory clarity. Fleets continued to defer replacement and expansion plans amid weak freight demand, persistent excess capacity, elevated financing and equipment costs, tariff volatility, uneven economic conditions, evolving emissions requirements, and sustained margin pressure. Both vocational and on-highway segments posted m/m and y/y declines. Vocational outperformed on-highway on a y/y basis, reflecting continued, but cautious, demand heading into 2026.
Concerns are rising for the 2026 order cycle. Cumulative net orders from September through November were down a striking 36% y/y. However, the market has more clarity now than it did a couple of months ago regarding tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and likely changes in the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx rule. Overall, the tariff structure raises costs but in a measured, targeted manner, supporting reshoring while avoiding significant short-term disruption to Class 8 sourcing and production. The expected elimination of the extended warranty requirements in the NOx rule likely will reduce costs substantially – perhaps by around half of the expected increase previously, according to some estimates.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
