According to the Cass Freight Index, the harsh weather across North America in January, is the driving factor forcing freight volumes to struggle and rates to rise.
“Truckload linehaul rates rose 1.7% m/m and 3.2% y/y in January, Cass said. “While weather earns part of the credit, we also believe new contract rates are in the mix. The good news for carriers is clear: 13 straight months of y/y increases and five consecutive months of m/m gains. Other factors such as tariff-related timing and continued de-stocking also challenged volumes and contributed to a -7.1 y/y decline in for-hire shipment volumes.”
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 7.1% y/y and 4.9% m/m in January, or 2.0% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reaching a new cycle low.
The normal seasonal trend would have the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 11% y/y in February, although a rebound from the weather could support volumes above this.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.6% m/m in January. Expenditures were up 0.6% from the year-ago level in January, after a 0.6% y/y dip in December.
“The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. With shipments down considerably, we can conclude higher freight costs,” Cass said.
- In SA terms, the index rose 0.4% m/m, after a 0.2% m/m increase in December.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.7% m/m in January, after a 1.0% increase in December.
- Rates rose 3.2% y/y as weather challenged volumes. Warmer weather should lead to some trend reversion, but for February at least, spot rates are likely to accelerate.
- This index is mostly comprised of contract rates, and anecdotally “we hear about more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting movement in the cycle beyond just weather effects,” Cass said.
- This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
