COLUMBUS, Ind. — After a largely lethargic year for orders in 2025, recent improvement in Class 8 order activity suggests optimism is growing for 2026, as published in the latest release of ACT Research’s North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“In our view, the rise in spot freight rates has given deep-pocketed, large fleets confidence that 2026 will be an improvement from the past three years spent in the trough and is arguably the most important factor driving improved Class 8 order activity,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Class 8 orders totaled 30,800 units in January, up 20% y/y, and preliminary February orders totaled 46,200 units, jumping 156% y/y. While weather has certainly provided a kick, the cumulative effect of three-plus years of whittling away at capacity is driving a primarily supply, rather than demand-driven recovery.”
2027 Low-NOx Regulation
“The American Trucking Associations’ mid-November announcement clarifying the EPA’s thinking vis-à-vis the agency’s 2027 low-NOx regulation was a welcome development that has helped to spur order activity,” Vieth said.
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth noted that with the four biggest technology companies in the US set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs in 2026, the vocational market appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show little sign of slowing in the short term.
“Additionally, after pulling back on expected prebuying in 2025 due to regulatory and trade uncertainty, vocational orders, like tractor, are benefitting from EPA’27 clarity,” Vieth said.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
