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ACT: Freight cycle finding a higher gear

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ACT: Freight cycle finding a higher gear
ACT: Strength in spot rates is going up against a surge in diesel prices.

COLUMBUS, Ind. — The recent strength in spot rates is going up against a surge in diesel prices, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Since there is generally no fuel surcharge in the spot market, it’s remarkable that spot rates have risen about as much as fuel costs in the past few weeks,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “Diesel costs spiked 25¢–30¢ per mile for TL fleets, which typically comes out of the spot market trucker’s pocket. But, with a lot of marginal fleets on the edge, the jump in diesel prices tightened capacity almost immediately, with spot dynamics tightening through March, demonstrating a tight market for the first time in about four years.

DAT Dry Van Load to Truck Ratio and Spot Rates March 2026
(Graph courtesy ACT Research)

“The extra $1.50 per gallon is a new capacity constraint on the TL market,” Denoyer said. “The TL rate outlook has risen as tighter driver and equipment availability drive spot market momentum, with a few signs of improving demand.”

Dana Guthrie

Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.

Avatar for Dana Guthrie
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
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