COLUMBUS, Ind. — After a 2025 mired in stagnant freight rates and beset by regulatory and policy uncertainty, 2026 begins with signs of cautious optimism for tractor and vocational markets, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” said Ken Vieth, president, senior analyst, ACT Research. “Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending.”
Weather Impacts Spot Rates
“Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather, and a quickening of capacity contractions,” Vieth said. “Though much of the gains are likely to reverse if January weather continues to warm. Lastly, EPA’s mid-November announcement regarding EPA’27 added much needed regulatory clarity, and based on December’s preliminary orders, likely drove some decision making. ACT’s preliminary look at December data shows NA Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, up 16% y/y. In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, an increasingly older fleets should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026.”
According to Vieth, like the tractor market, the vocational market was caught in regulatory and policy headwinds throughout 2025, but appears poised for a better-than-previously-expected 2026.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
