COLUMBUS, Ind. —The ongoing trade war and regulatory limbo continue to weigh on the for-hire market recovery, and by extension, tractor demand, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in 1H did two things,” said Ken Vieth, ACT Research’s president and senior analyst.
- Temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery
- 1H’s large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in 2H, potentially prolonging the path to recovery.
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations,” Vieth said. “Also, softness in end markets like housing are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run.”
Little Evidence for a Positive 2026
“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook,” Vieth said. “Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
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