The status and health of the trucking economy has certainly changed in the last four weeks.
Dean Croke, Principal Analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics has noticed and gave The Trucker some insight in a brief interview at the Mid America Truck Show (MATS) in Louisville, Ky. on Thursday.
First, he set the scene.
“Here we are with diesel prices at $5.51 a gallon today (March 26), that’s up 28 percent since the Middle East war started,” Croke said.
The oil market has been on a rollercoaster since. As of Thursday, a barrel of Brent crude oil climbed 4.5% to $101.62 as hopes dimmed for a potential return to normal for the strait. That’s up from roughly $70 before the war began. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 4.3% to $94.19 per barrel, the Associated Press reported.
The cost of doing business
The sharp increase in fuel expenses has, as Croke said, pushed up carrier operating costs and dropped gross profit margins by about 20 cents per mile in that period.
Diesel prices have pushed operating costs up about 88 cents a mile from the small carrier in the spot market,” Croke added.
“And the bizarre thing is they were doing okay up until the Middle East War started,” Croke said.
Croke called diesel “manageable” at $4.30 per gallon.
“We were just seeing signs the [freight] economy was improving,” Croke said. “Truckers were finally getting ahead. The spot rates were elevated so much in December, January, and February. Everyone thought, ‘oh, the market’s turned and the next thing diesel prices go up.'”
Croke said he noticed similarities to around the same time last year when President Donald Trump initiated the trade war, with his on-again, off-again tariff policies.
“It’s like, here we are again, back to the same spot we were last year when the trade war started,” Croke said. “Because the economy was improving in January, February. And it’s like, we’ve seen this movie before.”
Spot rates to the rescue
If there is a positive point to make, so far, in comparison to last year, it is that spot rates are up.
In fact, Croke noted that they are about 20-25% higher than they were a year ago.
“It’s provided a bit of a cushion for this big spike in diesel prices,” he said. “So even though it’s wiped out a lot of their profits they were making in the start of the year, they’re still trading above break-even So it’s not desperate times just yet because spot rates are higher and holding higher, and that’s largely because a lot of capacity is left in the industry because it’s been a tough economy.”
Add in that a lot of companies have gone out of business, more because of federal government pressure on illegal carriers, chameleon operators, as well as non-domicile CDL policies.
“It has forced a lot of capacity outta the industry,” Croke said. “It’s meant that spot rates have stayed elevated.”
Normally spot rates drop in the first quarter, but so far in 2026, “they stayed elevated after the storms, and we’re heading into spring and that kind of provides us with a new flow to start the year. That’s the good news.”
If demand doesn’t crash, and just stays flat, Croke said he thinks the trucking economy will be in good shape going into next year, which he said “has to be a recovery year.”
What can truckers do?
Croke’s best advice to truckers?
“Slow down.”
“I drove down here from Boston on the weekend and guys, you’re still driving way too fast now,” Croke said. “My advice would be slow down from 75 to 65 and give yourself a 5 -cent per mile pay raise, because that’s the difference. It’s like getting rates up five cents a mile by slowing down 10 miles an hour. So I think that’s what I would do is slow down, cut out deadhead miles, all those sorts of obvious things you need to do.”
Bruce Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has lived in three states including Arkansas, Missouri and Georgia. During his nearly 20-year career, Bruce has served as managing editor and sports editor for numerous publications. He and his wife, Dana, who is also a journalist, are based in Carrollton, Georgia.
