BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR is reporting a surge in North American Class 8 truck/tractor preliminary net orders for December
“Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.”
Highest Level Since October 2022
According to FTR, the numbers are at their highest level since October 2022, up 108% month-over-month (m/m) and 21% year-over-year (y/y) to 42,200 units – well above the 10-year December average of 29,351. While both on-highway and vocational markets saw similar percentage gains relative to the prior month, on-highway made up the bulk of the y/y increase in orders. Despite the strong performance in December, cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December were down 22% y/y, reflecting broad market headwinds. Class 8 orders have totaled 22,178 units for the past 12 months.
Improved Policy Visibility
According to FTR, a key driver of the strong December order performance was improved policy visibility on both tariffs and emissions regulations following clarifications in October and November. The Section 232 tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks implemented on Nov. 1 turned out to be less onerous than many had feared, and regulatory uncertainty has eased. The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that would retain the 2027 implementation date and the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard while eliminating the costly extended warranty requirements and modifying other compliance provisions. Word of EPA’s plan did not circulate until about 10 days before Thanksgiving, which probably is a factor in why the order surge occurred during December and not November.
Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
