OAKVILLE, Ontario & ATLANTA, Ga. — Cargo theft in North America has entered a new phase as losses reportedly reached an estimated $6.6 billion in 2025.
In addition to an increase in high value crime, the means of these thefts is also changing according to a new report from Geotab Inc. Criminals are increasingly using cybercrime tactics including GPS spoofing, stolen credentials and AI-powered social engineering to target high-value shipments with a level of precision that traditional security measures were not built to stop.
This confirms what Geotab found in a survey of 575 U.S. fleet operators: 38% said they were more worried about cargo theft than the year before, and 34% had experienced a theft incident in the prior 12 months. What is clear is that those concerns are well-founded, and that the threat is evolving faster than many fleets are prepared for.
A New Cargo Theft Threat
“This isn’t the same cargo theft problem the industry was dealing with even two years ago,” said Emily Williams, assistant vice prisident, transportation business development, Geotab. “We’re seeing a convergence of physical and cyber threats. Criminals are accessing fleet tracking portals with stolen credentials, spoofing GPS to mask route diversions, and using AI to automate phishing at scale. It demands a fundamentally different response.”
A 2026 Blueprint for Countering Organized Fraud
To help the industry navigate these developments, Geotab is releasing a new report, “Securing the Supply Chain: A 2026 Blueprint for Countering Smarter Theft.” It finds that criminal networks are increasingly exploiting “digital blind spots” to remove cargo without force—often before a fleet even realizes a theft has occurred.
Key Report Findings
- The Shift to Deception: Nearly a quarter of fleet professionals surveyed identified strategic theft—fraud, identity theft, and falsified paperwork—as their greatest threat, signaling a move away from traditional “smash-and-grab” crime.
- The Human Toll: The report highlights a growing human impact, with nearly half of respondents stating that the stress and safety risks associated with theft are contributing to significant driver burnout and turnover.
- Insurance Pressures: As theft becomes more organized, insurers are tightening requirements, pushing for proof of digital security and automated monitoring before offering favorable terms.
- High-Value Targets: Confirmed theft incidents rose 18% year-over-year in 2025, with average theft values climbing 36% to nearly $274,000 per incident. Food and beverage thefts alone spiked 47%.
Consumers Feel The Impact
“The impact extends well beyond the loading dock,” Geotab said. “Geotab’s survey found that 51% of American consumers experienced some form of cargo theft in the past year—often perceived as deliveries that simply ‘disappeared.’ More than a third (37%) now connect cargo theft to the higher prices they pay, making it a reputational risk as much as an operational one.”
Closing the Gap With Connected Technology
“The same technology criminals exploit can also act as a defense when deployed as a single connected system rather than a set of separate tools,” Geotab said. “Fleet operators can track vehicles, trailers and high value loads in real time using GPS, while geofences trigger alerts for route deviations, long dwell times or entry into high risk areas.”
Video telematics can activate when doors open or motion is detected, creating a visual record of events. Smart locks and electronic seals can send instant tamper alerts, while AI systems analyize operational data to flag unusual stops, off hours movement or irregular routes before a theft takes place.
“The fleets best positioned against today’s threats are the ones that have made real-time visibility part of how they operate every day, not just after something goes wrong,” Williams said.
For a deeper analysis of the cargo theft landscape and a detailed framework for fleet protection, Geotab’s full report is available here.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
