‘Chaos’ accurately describes current ups and downs of trucking industry
Remember that old “fortunately/unfortunately” joke series of long ago? Like the skydiver whose parachute (unfortunately) didn’t open. Fortunately, he was headed for a huge, soft haystack. Unfortunately, there was a pitchfork in it. Fortunately, he missed the pitchfork. Unfortunately….
The moral, of course, is that good and bad news often arrive together.
This was also the theme of FTR’s “Managing Chaos, Positioning to Win” webinar, held on Sept. 25, 2026. Cosponsored by Food Shippers of America (FSA) and moderated by FSA Executive Director Eric Missil, the event examined the competing forces shaping today’s freight market.
Freight rates — especially spot rates — are high right now. That’s good news for carriers, even as those same rates present a challenge to shippers trying to stay within their budgets.
Unfortunately, fuel costs have taken much of the joy out of those revenues.
Although the webinar focused on food shipments, many of the conditions discussed apply across the trucking industry.
After Missil welcomed attendees and made introductions, Eric Starks, chairman of the board for FTR, kicked off the event with a summary of current market conditions.
Trade tensions add to market uncertainty
To illustrate the “chaos” that spurred the webinar, he spoke about the deterioration of the USMCA, the successor to the earlier NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Starks had addressed the possibility earlier, at the FSA annual meeting.
“We’re now in a trade war with Canada,” he said. “We are in a semi trade war with Mexico, even though that’s not overly official yet — but I fully expect that it’s just going to continue to deteriorate in some capacity.”
Starks addressed imports and exports and their relationship to the value of the American dollar.
“One of the things we did think initially is that the dollar would appreciate and that we actually would then see imports become more attractive, because it’s more expensive to export,” he explained. “Well, the value of the dollar has not materially shifted one way or the other, so that hasn’t made anything more attractive.”
Pointing out that imports and exports between the U.S. and Canada have been relatively balanced at about 100,000 loads per month each way, Starks predicted that change is coming because of the trade war environment.
“We’re going to need to wait probably another three months before we really start to see the data showing what’s truly going on,” he said. “My guess is that Canada and Mexico are going to try to look at other ways to source materials, specifically as it relates to things like grain.”
Unexpected cargo tightens reefer capacity
Starks addressed the refrigerated freight market, highlighting two non-food products that are filling refrigerated trailers, helping to reduce available capacity and push rates upward.
“We have seen that prescription demand has gone up dramatically, and we have seen more stringent procedures that are required to move this product — and so they are competing now with traditional food products,” he said, noting that artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers are also responsible for filling some reefer trailers.
“Computer and electronics are very valuable,” he continued. “They want to protect these assets at all costs, so a temperature controlled environment makes sense.”
While Starks examined the forces reshaping demand for refrigerated transportation, Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, turned his attention to freight volumes, available capacity and the outlook for rates.
“We’re seeing a fairly modest, but certainly significant increase year over year in in truckload volumes for refrigerated,” Vise said. “This year we’re projecting it (to be) up 1.7%. Next year is a little softer, 1%.”
For dry van loadings, the story is different.
“This year we’re not really looking at much improvement, but then (we anticipate) a return in ’27 and ’28,” he said.
Shrinking capacity could push rates higher
Capacity was next on Vise’s agenda. Vise likes to use employment statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a “proxy” measure of trucking capacity: As the number of available trucks ebbs and flows, the number of employed truck drivers follows.
“There does seem to have been a bottoming out,” he remarked. “Using truckload employment as a proxy would suggest that as of March (2026), capacity was the lowest since 2012.”
Whether that’s truly the bottom, however, remains to be seen.
“There is also some preliminary data that suggests that total employment is likely even lower than we thought it was back in March,” he continued.
Vise pointed to several reasons for the tightened capacity, including FMCSA’s efforts to address the English language proficiency (ELP) issue, removal of non-domiciled CDLs, closure of non-compliant CDL schools and, finally, FMCSA’s new registration program, MOTUS.
“It has been a very rough rollout, and one of the things that FMCSA has conceded is that its data on operating authority is basically unavailable,” Vise noted.
Without that data, it’s difficult to tell how many new carriers have entered the marketplace and how many have left. FMCSA is expected to fix the rollout issues, but that will take time.
This is where, Vise explained, high fuel prices can actually create a benefit to the market.
Carriers are pushed financially by higher fuel costs, and some will close their doors. When they do, removing those trucks from the road tightens capacity further, potentially resulting in higher freight rates.
Spot rates near peak as diesel pressures persist
Of course, higher freight rates offer limited relief when operating expenses are climbing just as quickly. According to Vise, diesel supplies could remain a concern even if the conflict in the Middle East eases.
“At this point, we believe we’re sort of at the peak of pressure on spot rates,” he explained. “Contract rates look like they will be continuing (to rise), as that typically happens.”
Contract rates react much more slowly than spot freight rates, in part because contracts are longer term, meaning that even when spot rates rise or fall, the parties are still obligated to the contract rates agreed to.
One difference in this economic cycle, however, is what happens after spot rates reach their peak. Referring to 2018 and 2022 events, Vise said, “What typically happens is you get that peak, and then you have a very rapid drop. And we’re not forecasting that.”
Finally, Vise addressed the Trump administration’s threat to prohibit export of diesel fuel, pointing out that U.S. inventory of distillate fuels are at a 10-year low. Worse, those stocks typically shrink during the third quarter as fuel oil sales increase in preparation for winter cold and farmers increase their consumption during harvest season.
So, while a resolution to the Middle East conflict may get more oil flowing, the impact on U.S. inventories will take time.
For carriers, the outlook is a study in contradictions: Higher freight rates offer opportunities for increased revenue, but rising operating costs threaten to erase those gains. Meanwhile, tightening capacity, shifting trade relationships and uncertain fuel supplies make it difficult to predict what will come next.
Fortunately, there’s opportunity in the chaos. Unfortunately, there’s plenty of risk, too.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
