COLUMBUS, Ind. — The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in April, as freight volumes were weak but flat m/m, and capacity decreased.
“Even with some degree of pre-tariff shipping happening, it appears the adverse effects of tariffs are already starting to play out,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Declining container ship traffic suggests broadly weak volume will continue in the near term, but the 90-day step down in US/China tariffs is spurring significant activity into Q3.”
The Pricing Index
The Pricing Index fell 12.1 points m/m in April, to 39.4 (SA) from 51.5 in March, levels not seen since August of 2023, as demand softened following a surge in pre-tariff imports, interrupting the modest momentum in rates.
“The 12.1-point m/m decline was the third largest in the survey’s 15-year history,” Vieth said. “The supply side should contract as private fleets end their expansion, tariffs add to equipment costs, and for-hire fleet financials are impacted. However, pricing uncertainty remains elevated with trade policy changing.”
The Volume Index
The Volume Index showed significant softness for the second straight month, at 43.4 seasonally adjusted (SA) in April, down from 43.6 in March.
The Capacity Index
The Capacity Index decreased 4.0 points m/m, to 47.1 in April from 51.1 in March.
“Unsurprisingly given weak for-hire profits, heightened uncertainty, and higher equipment costs, capacity decreased as fleets choose to delay, or in some cases, opt out completely of new equipment purchases in 2025,” Vieth said. “Further capacity declines are likely, a necessary component for the cycle to begin an upswing. Unfortunately for fleets, lower demand related to tariffs will likely prolong the recovery.”
Supply-Demand Balance
“The recent drop in demand, as tariffs went into effect, has resulted in a looser market balance,” Vieth said. “Weaker economic activity and lower imports are likely to continue to impact volumes in May and June. With private fleets ending their expansion, and for-hire carriers under strain, capacity should continue to gradually exit the market.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
