Trucking conditions still point to industry recovery in second half of 2026
Freight rates are up — but a healthy portion of the increase can be attributed to increased fuel prices.
On the other hand, freight volumes are stronger. And more freight, combined with lowered capacity to haul it, bodes well for continued high rates.
ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported that its seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index remained unchanged for April from March’s Index of 117.8.
For perspective, ATA’s index is based on 2015 results of 100, meaning that April’s result was 17.8% higher than the 2015 baseline. The April 2026 result was 3.5% higher than April 2015, and the results for the year-to-date are even better.
“April’s unchanged tonnage level is more impressive when considering that the index increased a total of 4.7% since the end of 2025 and hasn’t decreased so far in 2026,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist. “The index is back to levels last seen during the fall of 2022.”
It’s worth noting that the ATA index is comprised from data received from surveys of its membership and represents mostly contract freight hauled by larger carriers. Those carriers, however, have mostly downsized their fleets since 2022. Having fewer trucks to haul the increased volume helps push rates higher.
DAT: Spot market saw rise in postings
On the spot freight market, DAT Freight and Analytics reported a decrease in load posts of 8.3% from March. That’s not a seasonally-adjusted number, however: April postings are almost always less than March, so a decline is normal.
The bigger news is that April postings of spot loads on DAT boards were 42.4% higher than in April 2025. At the same time, truck postings declined by 7.4%, an indication that fewer carriers were posting available equipment in search of loads.
Dry van average spot rates climbed to $2.67 for April, up 5.5% from March, according to DAT. Flatbed rates climbed 12.1% to an average of $3.44, while refrigerated rates rose to $3.12, an increase of 4.7%.
Fuel pricing remains an issue
Fuel costs, however, rose 60% over April 2025, mainly due to the military conflict in Iran and the closing/restriction of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s crude oil supply passes through the strait. Any shipping restrictions in the area impact global oil supply and pricing.
“Fuel was the story in April,” said Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT.
“Linehaul rates barely moved in van and reefer, and the volume of loads moved fell across the board,” he continued. “Small carriers continue to exit the market under sustained cost pressure. That’s not what a demand-based truckload freight recovery looks like.”
When fuel costs rise, carriers look to shippers to absorb at least some of the cost through fuel surcharges, and the trend continued in April. DAT reported that fuel surcharges hit their highest monthly averages since July 2022. Dry van FSG rose to 71 cents per mile, up a dime from March, while refrigerated FSG also rose a dime, to 77 cents. Flatbed FSG rose by 12 cents per mile to 85 cents.
How much of a carrier’s fuel cost increases are covered by the rise in surcharge revenue depends entirely on their record of fuel consumption. Those that achieve poor mpg results will absorb more of the increased cost. Those with better mpg will see more of their costs covered and possibly a small profit from the extra revenue.
FTR: Shipper’s Conditions Index drops
FTR’s Shipper’s Conditions Index looks at freight volumes and freight from a different perspective — that of the shipping manager looking to move products.
Back in March, FTR’s Index was -18.9, “one of the most negative readings in the history of the index,” according to an FTR release. The decline was attributed to “a combination of rising fuel costs, tightening capacity utilization and unfavorable freight rate conditions.”
Of course, those “unfavorable” freight rates are good news to the trucking industry — as long as fuel costs don’t eat up all of the increase.
Cass Freight Index bucks the trend
The Cass Freight Index for April bucked the trend of other reports with a 4.4% decline in April shipments compared with April 2025. However, the index showed a month-over-month gain for the third consecutive month. The Expenditures portion of the index showed gain of 2.6% over March and 3.5% over April 2025, indicating that freight rates are still rising.
“A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and with higher fuel prices sapping consumer spending, and rising interest rates sapping the housing market, this time is no different,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, who writes the Cass report.
By “supply-driven,” Denoyer refers to the supply of available trucks or the reduction in industry capacity. Without an appreciable increase in shipments (the demand for trucks), much of the improvement in rates comes from the decrease in capacity.
“Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggests our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not,” he said.
ACT: For-Hire Driver Availability index remains high
Denoyer mentioned another trucking phenomenon — the driver shortage.
While there is argument over whether a “driver shortage” actually exists, the difficulty in finding and hiring qualified drivers does increase when freight volumes and rates rise. In addition, new carrier starts rise as company drivers start up their own outfits, and driver churn increases as larger carriers compete for driver services.
ACT’s For-Hire Driver Availability Index remained above 50 for 43 straight months, indicating that drivers were easier to find and hire when everyone was downsizing. In April, the Index fell to 30.4. Anything under 50 indicates qualified drivers are becoming harder to find and hire. As the freight market improves, carriers who buy more trucks to take advantage will find it harder to fill them with drivers. FMCSA regulations on English Language Proficiency and Non-Domicile CDL issuance are pushing the number of CDL-qualified drivers downward, leaving empty trucks and fewer job-hunting drivers to fill them.
When will the freight market “recover”?
Analysts have predicted that the U.S. trucking industry will enter recovery mode during the second half of the year. Judging from increased freight rates and volumes — in addition to a reduced number of available drivers — it seems we’re still headed in that direction.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
