BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — FTR is reporting North American (N.A.) Class 8 preliminary net orders totaled 18,200 units in August, down 19% from July but up 42% year over year.
“Rather than weaker underlying demand, the month-over-month decline largely reflects normal summer seasonality, the end of the 2026 order season, and the tail end of the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy,” FTR said. “It’s possible that some OEMs’ 2026 order boards were sold out by early to mid-August, while 2027 order boards had not yet opened. Most – if not all – surcharge-free MY 2026 engine build slots are now likely full, suggesting that the pre-buy is largely over. September should provide the first full month in which order activity reflects the new engine pathways to 2027 NOx compliance.”
Improvement from August 2025
Through August, orders in 2026 were up 111% from the same period in 2025. Orders during the 2026 order season (September 2025 through August 2026) were 39% above the prior-year period. Orders totaled 350,677 units over the past 12 months.
With the 2026 order season now complete, attention is shifting to backlog execution, MY 2027 pricing and build slotting, and fleets’ response to the choice between noncompliance penalty (NCP)-supported current-generation engines and fully compliant EPA 2027 technology. The now-complete EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy has been an important support for Class 8 demand, though EPA’s proposed flexibility should reduce transition risk.
NCPs – per-engine fees that allow transitional sales of engines above the new NOx limit – could add roughly $6,000 to $7,000 per engine, likely as a direct pass-through to fleets. In comparison, a fully compliant MY 2027 engine will carry an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 OEM upcharge.
Incremental Costs
“The main issue now is incremental cost,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “OEM strategies are diverging as some have decided to offer both EPA 2027-compliant engines and current-technology engines with NCPs while at least one manufacturer plans to offer only a fully compliant option. However, it’s important to keep in mind that EPA’s July proposal is just that. Various provisions, including NCP levels, could still change, affecting the final 2027 NOx compliance framework and associated cost impacts. Overall, August marks the close of the 2026 order season and the effective end of the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy. September begins a new phase with MY 2027 ordering opening and fleet decisions increasingly shaped by engine choice, pricing, build timing, and the yet-to-be-finalized EPA 2027 NOx compliance framework.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
