COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research released the October installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors and after a less negative spot environment over the summer, ACT said it now expects excess capacity to exert more downward pressure on truckload spot rates.
“The rebalancing trend is still valid for 2020, but we think fourth quarter spot rates will actually fall from third quarter this year, counter to the seasonal pattern, due to the supply/demand imbalance detailed in the Freight Forecast report,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “We see the signs that capacity is beginning to come at the margin in some places, from company failures to lower for-hire employment data, but the industry still added about 5,000 net new tractors to the US highways last month. This reflects ongoing capacity additions by private fleets, as the for-hire sector isn’t the problem. This will change next year, but this rate of capacity addition will continue through year-end.”
ACT said freight softened in recent weeks, following the September 1 tariff imposition, and after a brief respite earlier in the third quarter, the freight recession is showing signs of broadening amid weaker industrial indicators.
“While holiday spending and pre-tariff inventory building may help volumes in fourth quarter, we continue to see heightened risk of weak freight volume in early 2020 as inventories draw down,” Denoyer said.
ACT Research is a publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets.
For more information, visit www.actresearch.net
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