Freight volumes for August were better than July … or worse, depending on which report was viewed. In the meantime, spot freight rates may be nearing their peak for the current market while contract rates are still catching up.
The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) advanced, seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index reported a 0.5% decline in truck tonnage for August, on the heels of a 1.2% decline in July. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello explained in the ATA release that tightened capacity has been responsible for improved rates rather than any manufacturing uptick.
“The truck market has certainly flipped this year, but recent tonnage levels confirm this is due to reduced capacity, not robust demand,” he said. “Truck tonnage was down in four of the last five months. It is down 4.3% from the recent peak in March, and it has fallen from year-earlier levels in three of the last four months.”
The ATA Index for August was down 1.6% from its August 2025 level. Despite inflationary pressure, which resulted in a 0.25% increase in the FED rate at its September meeting, manufacturing has not increased substantially.
There are simply fewer trucks available to haul the amount of freight tendered; this is pushing rates upward.
Freight indexes paint conflicting pictures
The Cass Freight Index for Shipments, however, told a different story: Shipments rose 5.6% in the Cass report from July levels and were 2.1% higher than in August 2025.
The difference is in the way each organization calculates its index.
The ATA report is compiled from survey information received from the association’s members and represents mostly contract truckload freight. The Cass Report is compiled using billing information from its clients; this report represents multiple modes of transport — mostly trucking, but also rail, ship, air and pipeline.
The Cass Freight Index for Expenditures highlights the results of higher freight rates. The amount spent by Cass clientele rose 5.8% in August and was 18.7% higher than the August 2025 level.
In commentary written by Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, the report summarized that “the sequential increase is in line with expectations and as indicated by the spot market. Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is adjusting higher.”
Spot rates may be peaking as contract rates catch up
Freight rates were also on the mind of Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for FTR.
“At this point, we believe we’re sort of at the peak of pressure on spot rates. Contract rates look like they will be continuing (to rise), as that typically happens,” Vise noted during a Sept. 24 webinar cosponsored by Food Shippers of America (FSA).
Contract rates react much more slowly than spot freight rates: Spot rates depend on current market conditions, whereas contract rates may be locked in for a period specified in the agreement.
DAT reported a decline of 9.3% in August in spot load postings on its load board. The information was posted on the firm’s “Trendlines” page. Load posts were still 35.3% higher than August 2025, but the trend for 2026 was downward.
National average spot rates for dry van declined to $2.89 per mile from $3 in July; refrigerated spot rates fell to $3.39 from $3.42, and flatbed spot rates fell to $3.54 from $3.64. Those figures include fuel surcharges.
Dry van contract rates, according to DAT, surpassed spot rates in August, rising to $3.11 per mile compared to the $2.89 spot rate. Reefer contract rates were three cents per mile higher than the $3.39 spot rate, and average contract rates for flatbed were $3.92 compared with the spot average of $3.54.
Of course, fuel costs are an important consideration when evaluating freight rates, and DAT also provides a weekly summary of national rates exclusive of fuel surcharges.
Dry van rates, spot and contract combined, were $2.28 per mile for the first week of August, falling to $2.19 for the final week of the month. In comparison, they were $1.64 to start August 2025 and $1.67 to end that month.
Refrigerated rates followed a similar trajectory, starting August 2025 at $1.95 per mile and climbing to $2.04 by the final week, rising to $2.64 -$2.69 in August 2026.
Flatbed rates began August at $2.79, falling to $2.67 during the month — substantially better than last year’s $2.04-$2.05 per mile.
Assuming that fuel surcharges are adequate to cover increased fuel expenses, the increase in rates not including surcharges looks better. Whether it’s enough to cover increases in maintenance, insurance and other expenses depends on the individual carrier’s experience.
Capacity constraints could push rates higher through 2027
Finally, a Sept. 3, 2026, Freight Market Update from mega-logistics icon C.H. Robinson forecasts trucking costs and freight rates into 2027.
“Elevated insurance costs, stricter driver requirements, federal enforcement actions, and other business challenges continue removing capacity from the market,” the report states. “This creates a market that remains increasingly sensitive to disruptions.”
C.H. Robinson predicts that trucking supply will continue to contract into 2027, resulting in shipping costs that are expected to “increase steadily through 2027, even without a significant change in underlying freight demand.”
For dry van, the company forecasts a 10% year-over-year increase for 2027 after a 30% increase this year. Refrigerated rates are forecast for an 11% rise after a 31% boost in 2026. Flatbed will, according to the forecast, finish out 2026 with a 28% total increase and will grow another 10% in 2027.
The Robinson forecast, like those of other analysts, assumes the economy will remain at its current slow growth pace.
The Fed, however, has become concerned that inflation has exceeded its target of 2% annual growth and has stated that more interest rate increases may be coming. An economic boom, coupled with current capacity restraints, could send freight rates to record levels, but no one is currently predicting such an event.
Rising diesel costs underscore the need for fuel surcharges
The national average price for a gallon of diesel fuel, according to the Energy Information Administration, ended August at $5.60, climbing to $6.53 in September before finally dropping 15 cents to $6.38.
Making sure that surcharges are in place for every load continues to be critical for every carrier.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
