BLOOMINGTON — FTR is reporting North American (N.A.) Class 8 preliminary net orders increased sequentially in May to 26,600 units, up 4% m/m and ahead of expectations.
“The May result reinforces that demand remains healthy, supported by replacement needs, firming freight rates, rising utilization, tighter capacity, limited remaining 2026 build availability and moderate EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy activity,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles , FTR. “At the same time, the order pace is likely to slow as normal summer seasonality takes hold and 2026 build slots become increasingly limited.”
124% Growth Year-Over-Year
Orders were up 124% y/y, marking the fourth consecutive month of more than 120% y/y growth, and were 56% above the 10-year May average of 17,046 units. Vocational orders were responsible for most of the modest sequential gain; on-highway orders were relatively flat. Orders totaled 312,902 units over the past 12 months.
Through May, order intake for the year to date is 112% higher than last year while the 2026 order season to date is up 28%. This strength has improved backlog visibility for truck manufacturers and suggests that the remaining 2026 build slots are likely to fill up or effectively sell out before the typical August timeframe. Still, softer retail sales and uneven carrier profitability indicate the recovery is not universal.
“With demand exceptionally strong, the focus of the cycle has now shifted to whether truck manufacturers can execute against the stronger backlog,” Moyer said. “Build execution, supplier readiness, labor availability and delivery timing will become increasingly important as 2026 progresses.
Risks Still Remain
“Risks remain,” Moyer said. “If freight improvement stalls, financing pressure persists, geopolitical risks are not resolved, or the final EPA rule materially differs from expectations, some fleets could defer or cancel orders placed to secure 2026 capacity.”
Orders Stronger than Expected
“Overall, May orders were stronger than expected and confirm a healthy demand backdrop,” Moyer said. “However, the order pace is likely to decelerate as summer seasonality and shrinking 2026 build availability become larger constraints. The next test is whether manufacturers can convert the stronger backlog into production while limiting cancellations, deferrals, and bottlenecks.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
