Trend reflects upturn from bottom of capacity cycle
U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks plummeted in January to just 12,287, according to data received from Omdia — a 39.2% freefall from December 2025 and a 24% year-over-year drop from January 2025 sales of 16,175 units.
That number reflects the worst January since 2011, when the industry was coming out of the Great Recession. Just over 171,000 Class 8 trucks were sold that year, and it took several strong months towards the end to reach that mark.
What does it mean for trucking?
This year, much will depend on whether freight rates continue to rise — and how quickly they do so. Low truck sales are an indicator that the trucking industry has, at long last, turned the corner from the bottom of the capacity cycle.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, in response to the high freight rates of 2022, both new and established carriers bought new trucks to maximize revenue opportunities. Company drivers quit their jobs in droves, buying their own trucks to cash in on the boom.
Nearly 222,000 trucks were purchased in 2021. That number rose to over 254,000 the following year and peaked at 266,000 in 2023. In 2024, rates were falling but sales remained strong at over 240,000.
Just as rising freight rates prompted increased truck sales, falling rates had the opposite effect. Large carriers closed, small carriers sold their trucks and either retired or became company drivers again.
Class 8 truck sales fell to just over 208,000 in 2025, and they may well struggle to get to 200,000 this year. As U.S. sales were falling, however, buyers were showing confidence that better days are ahead with increased orders for new trucks.
Cautious optimism for freight market
According to ACT Research, North American orders for new Class 8 trucks totaled 42,684 in December 2025, with another 30,800 ordered in January.
Increased orders may indicate carrier confidence that trucking conditions will improve, but placing orders instead of taking delivery of new trucks is a way for carriers to hedge their bets on the future. By the time those trucks are delivered, rates may well have increased — and orders can be cancelled if freight rates don’t cooperate.
While capacity has been contracting in the trucking industry, reducing the supply of available trucks, the economy that provides the demand for them has been improving. According to Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, three factors are in play:
1. The economy
“First, the economy continues to exceed expectations. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow expects 4.2% growth in Q4,” Vieth said.
2. Winter weather
“Second, following nearly three years of stagnant freight rates, successive winter storms across the Midwest in December and January caused aggregate DAT spot rates to surge 17% in January,” he continued.
While some of that increase will undoubtedly subside with better weather, Vieth noted that “the improving supply-demand balance will allow some of the early 2026 freight rate spike to stick beyond recent bad weather impacts.”
3. EPA emissions rules
“Lastly, part of the recent order uptick has been attributable to clarity around the EPA’s Clean Truck low NOx rule,” he concluded.
The Environmental Protection Agency had announced in March 2025 that it would review new regulations enacted during the Biden administration, but did not clarify what changes, if any, would be made until months later. Some carriers may have been waiting to order new trucks until they knew more.
Is this just a temporary thing?
According to Dan Moyer, senior analyst-commercial vehicles for FTR Transportation Intelligence, the improvement seen in orders very well could be temporary.
“Fleet profitability and capital discipline remain binding constraints,” he explained. “Purchasing behavior continues to be replacement-driven with only modest early EPA 2027 influence.”
Noting that freight fundamentals remain “fragile,” Moyer said, “A durable recovery would require notable and sustained y/y order growth as 2026 progresses and meaningful improvement in freight demand, freight pricing, and overall economic conditions.”
Truck and trailer sales
Orders for new trailers followed tractor orders with about 23,000 January orders, 9% more than January 2025.
On the used Class 8 market, the winter storms that curtailed shipping also hampered truck shopping. According to ACT reports, used truck sales fell 11% from December and were 25% lower than January 2025.
“Total reported January preliminary sales came in 31% off December’s pace,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT. “It seems reasonable to assume the numerous severe winter storms that pummeled much of the country may also have kept buyers out of used truck lots during the month.”
Individual OEM stats
Daimler Truck North America
For the individual OEMs, Freightliner led the way with sales of 4,314, down 38.1% from December and down 34.1% from January 2025. Daimler sibling Western Star reported sales of 795 units, down 26.4% from December and 10% from last January.
International
International reported sales of 1,695 for January, a decline of 21.5% from December — and the lowest decline among the major OEMs. Compared with January 2025, sales dropped 33.5%.
PACCAR
Kenworth’s 1,798 sold represented a decline of 36.6% from December and a miniscule 3.3% decline from January 2025 sales — the smallest year-over-year decline of the manufacturers. PACCAR sibling Peterbilt achieved similar results with sales of 1,918, down 30.0% from January and just 7.7% beneath January 2025 sales of 2,077.
Volvo
It wasn’t a good month for the Volvo Truck companies Volvo and Mack. Both OEMs posted the biggest sales losses compared with December. Volvo sales of 810 were down 63.4% from December’s 2,213 and were down 27.5% from last January’s 1,117. Mack’s 947 trucks sold represented a decline of 57.1% from December and a drop of 17.1% from January 2025.
Hino
Although a drop in the bucket compared with the bigger OEMs, tiny Hino reported sales of 10 trucks for January, down 33.3% from the 15 sold in December but a 150% improvement from January 2025 sales of just four Class 8 trucks. Hino, a larger player in the medium-duty market, offers a Class 8 day cab option for its customers.
What’s in store?
Truck sales for the rest of 2026 will depend largely on the economy, especially as it impacts freight rates. If carriers can make money, they’ll buy more trucks.
The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision denying the Trump administration’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) may play a role as collected tariffs are reimbursed, infusing cash into the economy, and importers move to increase inventories before new tariffs can be imposed.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
