The Cass Freight Index data for July once again reflects a market where a demand turnaround remains elusive.
Despite falling shipment volumes, supply shortages continue to worsen and drive rates in the opposite direction:
- Truckload linehaul rates up 8.6% y/y
- Total spending on freight up 9.1% y/y, against volumes that fell nearly 5%
“With interest rates rising, fuel elevated, real income growth near zero and savings rates worryingly low, it seems like we’ll keep waiting for a demand recovery,” Cass said. “A bright spot for shippers: Class 8 tractor sales are set to rise above replacement levels in the coming months, alleviating one constraint on the market.”
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.8% y/y in July, after a 4.1% drop in June.
- In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments fell 2.2% m/m in July, after a 2.9% drop in June.
- Some of the softness is the result of higher fuel prices, but to a large extent, volumes are still soft because capacity is declining. The Cass data are trucking intensive, among other modes, but rail intermodal is gaining share from trucking this year, also pressuring this index.
The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down about 3% y/y in August.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 9.1% y/y in July to 3.52, slowing from an 11.2% gain in June. The slowdown was mainly due to lower volumes.
- In SA terms, the index fell 2.2% m/m after rising for eight straight months, on a 2.2% drop in shipments and a slight increase in rates.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose to 152.9 in July, up 2.3% m/m and up 8.6% y/y.
- After a surprising 0.9% y/y decline in June, the sequential increase is greater than normal, and considering spot activity, further increases should be expected.
- These shipper-sourced rates are not taking off like some leading spot indicators, but should provide a perspective consistent with the broader truckload market, which is still mostly contract. In Q2, ACT Research estimates similar rates at the publicly traded truckload fleets rose 8.7% y/y.
- This index reflects the whole for-hire truckload market, both spot and contract rates.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
