COLUMBUS, Ind. — While demand trends are mixed and the outlook remains cloudy, capacity continues to contract, as discussed in the latest release of the ACT Research Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 35% from 1H to 2H this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president, senior analyst, ACT. “In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.”
Driver Eligibility Impacts Market
“The recent trends in our ACT Driver Availability Index suggests the driver market is no longer loose, but not yet tight,” Denoyer said. “This index, from a survey of medium and large fleets, needed to fall below 40 the last two cycles before rates responded. The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one-to-two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
